An-Najah National University

Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies

Tel: (972) (9) 2345113           Fax: (972)(9) 2345982

Nablus – Palestinian: P.O.Box 7, 707

Email: [email protected] [email protected]

Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll

No. 36

20-22 November 2008

Background

After the Egyptian preparations and the intensive communications with the Palestinian factions to hold a conference for reconciliation in Cairo, and after even sending out invitations to all Palestinian factions and other independent personalities to attend the conference, Hamas and other Palestinian factions declared their boycotting of the conference. Hamas submitted a group of requests and conditions and asked for executing them before the conference convenes. Such conditions aborted the Egyptian efforts and the efforts to hold the conference failed.

The Palestinian political arena is still divided between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; the division is even intensified by the war of words between the two sides.

As for the truce (hudna) in the Gaza Strip between Hamas and the Israeli Government, several evasions occurred. The Israeli Army penetrated some border line areas in the Strip and some Palestinian factions responded by firing rockets against Israel.

The Results

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 36 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 20-22 November 2008. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 36 undertakes the current political realities including the failure of all efforts to hold a conference for Palestinian reconciliation in Cairo, the possibility of holding presidential and PLC elections, the truce between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the possibility of sending Arab troops to the West and the Gaza Strip in addition to political affiliations and other issues.

The sample included 1865 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 865 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 3.8% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

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The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not, by any means, represent the opinion of An-Najah National University.

The General Results:

• 61.8% of respondents believed that Hamas, from among Palestinians, is responsible for the failure of the intended conference of the Palestinian factions in Cairo; 22.2% believed that Fateh is the responsible faction.
• 75.3% of respondents believed that there are countries who worked to abort the call for the conference in Cairo.
• 28.4% of respondents believed that the USA was working to abort the Cairo conference, 27.6% believed it was Israel who worked against the Cairo conference; 20.1% believed it was Iran.
• 38.9% of respondents believed that Hamas was really concerned with a successful dialogue in Cairo; 51.4% believed the contrary.
• 59.6% of respondents believed that Fateh was really concerned with a successful dialogue in Cairo; 31.3% believed the contrary.
• 62.3% of respondents believed that the Palestinian Presidency was really concerned with a successful dialogue in Cairo, 30.2% believed the contrary.
• 61.3% of respondents rejected the boycotting of Hamas to the Cairo Conference
• 48.4% of respondents believed that there is a serious intent among all parties of the crisis to end the current Palestinian division.
• 63.3% of respondents believed that the Palestinian leaderships are capable of ending the current Palestinian division.
• 65% of respondents believed that the Palestinian people are ready to make a national reconciliation succeed.
• 51.7% of respondents believed that it is possible to conduct democratic elections under the current circumstances.
• 59.6% of respondents supported dissolving the PLC;  30.8% rejected.
• 43.3% of respondents supported conducting presidential elections at the end of the current President's term; 53.2% rejected
• 45.1% of respondents supported continuing negotiations under their present conditions between the Palestinian Authority and Israel.
• 21.5% of respondents believed that the present PLC members are performing their duties as required of them.
• 44.2% of respondents supported allowing Arab troops to enter the Gaza Strip.
• 50.4% of respondents supported the position of Palestinian factions who oppose allowing Arab troops to enter the West Bank.
• 32.5% of respondents supported allowing Arab troops to enter the West Bank.
• 29.9% of respondents supported allowing Arab troops to enter the West Bank and the Gaza Strip simultaneously.
• 63.6% of respondents believed that Hamas is concerned with extending the truce (hudna) agreement with Israel once it expires.
• 40.3% of respondents believed that Israel is the prime beneficiary from the truce in the Gaza Strip; 26.4% believed that Hamas is the prime one.
• 40.8% of respondents believed that if Hamas accepts a truce with Israel, their acceptance would mean a retreat from the armed struggle option.
• 39.9% of respondents believed that the Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip accepted willingly the truce that Hamas declared.
• 49.7% of respondents believed that the truce between Hamas and Israel is an introduction to direct negotiations on the future of the Gaza Strip
• 36.3% of respondents believed that the negotiations that President Mahmoud Abbas conducts will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories.
• 32.1% of respondents believed that Palestinian resistance in its present shape will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories.
• 61.7% of respondents assessed the performance of the Palestinian Presidency at the present time as "good".
• Regardless of legitimacy or illegitimacy, 57.9% of respondent supported the general policy of the care-taker government of Salam Fayyad.
• Regardless of legitimacy or illegitimacy, 28.8% of respondents supported the general policy of the dissolved government of Ismael Haniyeh.
• 58.9% of respondents assessed the performance of the care-taker government of Salam Fayyad as "good".
• 29.2% of respondents assessed the performance of the dissolved government of Ismael Haniyeh as "good".
• 80.2% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 39.1% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 16.7% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
• 80.6% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 38.9% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 17.9% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
• If PLC elections are to be conducted, 46.7% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 18.2% expected the winning of Hamas.
• 77.1% of respondents supported the formation of a transitional government  whose aim will be to prepare for and supervise Presidential and PLC elections
• 61.2% of respondents believed that the Palestinian security forces are capable of imposing order and the rule of law on the areas in which they were redeployed.
• 69.4% of respondents supported the notion that Palestinian arms must only be in the hands of the Palestinian security apparatuses.
• 54.3% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
• 37.3% of respondents said that the current security, political and economic conditions will drive them to emigrate.
• 60.3% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
• 78.3% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.
• As for political affiliation respondents gave the following results:

The General Results of the Poll

 Who, in your opinion, from among Palestinians is responsible for the failure of the reconciliation meeting (conference) of the Palestinian factions in Cairo?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Fateh	22.2	20.2	25.6
Hamas	61.8	63.2	59.2
Other Palestinian factions	9.0	10.5	6.4
No opinion/I do not know	7.0	6.0	8.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 Do you believe that there are countries that worked to abort the meeting in Cairo?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	75.3	73.2	79.0
No	15.4	16.6	13.2
No opinion/I do not know	9.3	10.2	7.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 It is said that there are countries and governments that worked to abort the Cairo meeting. Who are these countries in your opinion?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
The United States of America	28.4	34.7	17.4
Iran	20.1	11.8	34.4
Syria	4.2	1.4	9.2
Other Arab countries	8.2	9.7	5.6
Israel	27.6	29.2	24.8
No opinion/I do not know	11.5	13.2	8.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that Hamas was really concerned with making the Cairo dialogues succeed?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	38.9	44.7	28.8
No	51.4	44.2	64.0
No opinion/I do not know	9.7	11.1	7.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 Do you think that Fateh was really concerned with making the Cairo dialogues succeed?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	59.6	60.7	57.6
No	31.3	28.3	36.4
No opinion/I do not know	9.2	11.0	6.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that Palestinian Presidency was really concerned with making the Cairo dialogues succeed?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	62.3	63.9	59.4
No	30.2	28.0	34.0
No opinion/I do not know	7.5	8.1	6.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject Hamas’ boycotting of the Cairo Meeting

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I strongly support	9.9	4.3	19.6
I support	18.3	22.7	10.8
I reject	40.6	49.6	25.0
I strongly reject	20.7	12.6	34.6
No opinion/I do not know	10.5	10.9	10.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that there is a genuine desire among the concerned parties of the crisis to end the Palestinian division?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	48.4	59.0	30.2
No	43.4	36.0	56.4
No opinion/I do not know	8.1	5.1	13.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the Palestinian leaderships (Fateh, Hamas, the left.----etc.) are capable of ending the current Palestinian division?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	63.3	69.0	53.4
No	32.1	28.3	38.6
No opinion/I do not know	4.6	2.7	8.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the Palestinian people are ready to make a national reconciliation succeed?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	65.0	71.6	53.6
No	31.0	26.4	39.0
No opinion/I do not know	4.0	2.1	7.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that it is possible to conduct democratic elections under the present circumstances?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	51.7	60.1	37.2
No	44.1	36.3	57.6
No opinion/I do not know	4.2	3.6	5.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject dissolving the PLC?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I strongly support	23.1	14.5	38.0
I support	36.6	46.0	20.2
I reject	21.6	26.7	12.8
I strongly reject	9.2	3.9	18.2
No opinion/I do not know	9.6	8.9	10.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject conducting new Presidential elections by the end of the current president's term?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I strongly support	18.2	9.0	34.2
I support	25.1	27.2	21.6
I reject	45.7	61.2	19.0
I strongly reject	7.5	0.8	19.2
No opinion/I do not know	3.4	1.8	6.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject continuing negotiations under their present realities between the Palestinian Authority and Israel?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I strongly support	8.6	5.1	14.8
I support	36.4	42.1	26.6
I reject	33.7	38.7	25.0
I strongly reject	15.8	10.3	25.2
No opinion/I do not know	5.5	3.8	8.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the current PLC members are performing their duties as required of them?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	21.5	21.2	22.0
No	68.0	68.9	66.4
No opinion/I do not know	10.5	9.9	11.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 Do you support or reject bringing Arab troops to the Gaza Strip?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I strongly support	13.0	6.9	23.6
I support	31.2	38.2	19.2
I reject	32.9	36.0	27.6
I strongly reject	20.0	16.2	26.6
No opinion/I do not know	2.9	2.8	3.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject the position of Palestinian factions that oppose bringing Arab troops to the Gaza Strip?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I strongly support	18.2	12.6	28.0
I support	32.2	39.0	20.4
I reject	35.1	39.1	28.2
I strongly reject	8.6	5.4	14.0
No opinion/I do not know	5.9	3.9	9.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 Do you support or reject bringing Arab troops to the West Bank?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I strongly support	8.8	3.7	17.6
I support	23.7	27.5	17.0
I reject	42.3	46.5	35.2
I strongly reject	22.5	20.2	26.4
No opinion/I do not know	2.7	2.1	3.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject sending Arab troops to the West Bank and the Gaza Strip simultaneously?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	29.9	30.2	29.4
No	63.8	65.9	60.2
No opinion/I do not know	6.3	3.9	10.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Once the truce agreement between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip expires, do you think that Hamas is concerned with an extension?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	63.6	61.7	66.8
No	24.0	25.1	22.0
No opinion/I do not know	12.5	13.2	11.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Who is the prime beneficiary of the truce between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Israel	40.3	38.0	44.2
Hamas	26.4	20.7	36.2
The average citizen in the Strip	28.8	35.1	17.8
No opinion/I do not know	4.5	6.1	1.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that by accepting the truce Hamas is retreating from the armed struggle option?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	40.8	33.6	53.2
No	51.1	58.6	38.2
No opinion/I do not know	8.1	7.7	8.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip agreed willingly on the truce that Hamas declared?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
They agreed willingly	39.9	41.3	37.4
They agreed under some pressure from Hamas	47.0	44.4	51.4
Other	2.2	1.8	2.8
No opinion/I do not know	11.0	12.5	8.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the truce between Hamas and Israel is an introduction to direct negotiations on the future of the Gaza Strip?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	49.7	49.1	50.8
No	38.8	40.9	35.2
No opinion/I do not know	11.4	9.9	14.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the negotiations that President Mahmoud Abbas is conducting will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	36.3	34.0	40.2
No	55.4	60.1	47.2
No opinion/I do not know	8.4	5.9	12.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the Palestinian resistance in its present form will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	32.1	21.6	33.0
No	59.2	62.3	53.8
No opinion/I do not know	8.7	6.1	13.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

How do you assess the performance of the Palestinian Presidency at the present time?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Good	61.7	62.1	61.0
Bad	32.1	31.7	32.8
No opinion/I do not know	6.2	6.2	6.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Regardless of its legitimacy or illegitimacy, do you support or reject the general policy of the Palestinian government led by Salam Fayyad?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	57.9	58.0	57.6
I reject	33.0	32.4	34.2
No opinion/I do not know	9.1	9.6	8.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Regardless of its legitimacy or illegitimacy, do you support or reject the general policy of the dissolved government of Ismael Haniyeh?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	28.8	30.4	26.0
I reject	61.8	58.3	67.8
No opinion/I do not know	9.5	11.3	6.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

How do you assess the performance of Salam Fayyad's care-taker government?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Good	58.9	60.8	55.6
Bad	31.6	29.0	36.0
No opinion/I do not know	9.5	10.2	8.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

How do you assess the performance of Ismael Haniyeh's dissolved government?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Good	29.2	32.0	24.4
Bad	59.7	54.8	68.2
No opinion/I do not know	11.1	13.2	7.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

If presidential elections are held in the present time, to whom from among the following do you give your vote?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
An independent candidate	6.7	6.4	7.4
A candidate from the left	2.9	2.2	4.2
A candidate from Hamas	13.4	9.8	19.6
A candidate from Fateh	31.4	27.9	37.4
A national independent candidate	6.0	6.6	5.0
An Islamic independent candidate	3.8	3.6	4.2
I will not participate in the elections	19.9	23.1	14.2
I have not decided yet	15.9	20.5	8.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

If new PLC elections are conducted, whom do you vote for?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
An independent ticket	6.4	5.8	7.4
A ticket from the left	2.6	2.2	3.2
A ticket from Hamas	14.4	10.8	20.8
A ticket from Fateh	31.4	27.9	37.4
A national independent ticket	5.9	6.4	5.2
An Islamic independent ticket	4.5	3.8	5.6
I will not participate in the elections	19.4	23.1	13.0
I have not decided yet	15.5	20.1	7.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

If new legislative elections were to be held today, which of the following would win?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Independent Islamists bloc	6.7	5.2	9.2
Independent Nationalist bloc	6.9	7.4	6.0
Fateh bloc	46.7	48.2	44.2
Hamas bloc	18.2	16.3	21.6
A bloc from leftist organizations	1.6	1.6	1.6
No opinion/I do not know	19.9	21.3	17.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Are you in favor of forming a transitional government for the purpose  of preparing  for and supervising new presidential and PLC elections?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	77.1	79.8	72.6
No	15.5	14.3	17.4
No opinion/I do not know	7.4	5.9	10.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the Palestinian security forces are capable of imposing law and order on the areas in which they were redeployed?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	61.2	64.4	55.6
No	32.5	32.3	33.0
No opinion/I do not know	6.3	3.4	11.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject the notion that Palestinian arms should be in the hands of Palestinian security apparatuses, and that any other arms in the hands of other Palestinian men will be considered arms for racketeering business?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	69.4	76.6	56.8
I reject	26.5	20.8	36.4
No opinion/I do not know	4.1	2.5	6.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Are you worried about your life under the present circumstances?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	54.3	49.4	62.8
No	44.5	50.4	34.4
No opinion/I do not know	1.2	0.2	2.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do the current security, political and economic circumstances urge you to emigrate?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	37.3	28.8	52.0
No	61.7	70.9	45.8
No opinion/I do not know	1.0	0.3	2.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Are you pessimistic or optimistic towards the general Palestinian situation at this stage?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Optimistic	37.3	41.0	30.8
Pessimistic	60.3	57.5	65.2
No opinion/I do not know	2.4	1.5	4.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Under the present circumstances, do you feel that you, your family and your properties are safe?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	21.2	20.9	21.8
May be	36.6	39.4	31.6
No	41.7	39.5	45.4
No opinion/I do not know	0.5	0.1	1.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 Which of the following political affiliations do you support?