January 20-21, 2006

Background:

All electoral lists and candidates launched their campaigns from sites of significance for these lists and candidates in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Candidates, then, started presenting their programs in all locations of the Palestinian Territories. Israel, however, hindered and, in some cases, prevented some of the campaigns in East Jerusalem.
Israel finally agreed to allow conducting the legislative elections in East Jerusalem according to the same regulations followed in the 1996 legislative elections and the 2005 presidential elections. In the meantime, the Palestinian voters await conducting the elections on the appointed time.
Meanwhile, Israel continues its policy of assassination and incursions in some Palestinian cities.

The Results:

Following are the results of the 18th Palestinian Public Opinion Poll conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from January 20 to 21, 2006. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.
This poll undertakes several subjects centered on the coming Palestinian legislative elections, in addition to political sympathies.
The sample included 2720 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 1720 persons from the West Bank and 1000 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±2%; still 1.7% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.
*The Opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not represent by any means the opinion of An-Najah National University.

Major results:

· 87.8% from among respondents believe that the second legislative elections will be conducted on its specified date.
· 69% from among respondents assert that the legislative elections will be democratic and fair; 21.5% say the opposite.
· 66% from among respondents see that the internal security conditions permit conducting legislative elections; 26.3% see the contrary.
· 85.6% from among respondents say that they trust the Central Elections Committee.
· 76.4% from among the respondents say that they do not feel that their families, themselves or their properties are secure under the current local security conditions.
· 71% from among the respondents support a renewal of the ceasefire (hudna) between the Palestinian factions and Israel; 23.7% reject.
· As for political affiliation respondents give the following results:
People’s Party
1.4%
Democratic Front
2.0%
Islamic Jihad
2.9%
Fateh
39.0%
Hamas
23.4%
Fida
0.3%
Popular Front
5.8%
Palestinian National Initiative
2.5%
I am an independent nationalist
5.7%
I am an independent Islamist
2.2%
None of the above
13.5%
Others
1.1%
· 85% say that they will participate in the elections.
· 21.1% from among respondent will not participate in the legislative elections because of religious reasons, 6.8% for political reasons, and 36.4% will not participate because in their view the elections will not change anything.
· When asked which list will they vote for, respondents gave the following responses: Fateh led by Marwan Barghuthi received 43.6% as contrasted with 39.3% in Poll 17(January 5-6, 2006), Change and Reform led by Ismael Abu Hannieh received 34.2% as contrasted with 31.3, Independent Palestine and the Independents led by Mustafa al Barghuthi received 6.5% as contrasted with 10.4%, Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa led by Ahmad Sa’adat received 6.6% as contrasted with 6.8%, The Third Road led Bay Salam Fayyad received 4.8% as contrasted with 5.5% in Poll 17.
· The order of the running tickets according to the opinio