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Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No. 48

 

Background

Peace talks between the Palestinians and the Israelis stopped because Israel did not release, by the end of March, the last group of pre-Oslo prisoners as agreed upon between the two sides under the auspices of the United States. John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, made several attempts to bring back the two sides to resume negotiations which were scheduled to end by the end of April.  

Since Israel did not release the fourth group of the pre-Oslo prisoners, the Palestinian Authority submitted applications to join a group of United Nations organizations and bodies.

Israel threatened Palestinians with stopping the transfer of tax revenues to the Palestinian Authority if the Palestinian Authority continues to submit applications to join United Nations organizations and bodies.

Division between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip still persists while each side adheres to its convictions and there are no signs that the division will end.

 

The Results

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 48 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 18-20 April 2014. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

This poll undertakes the Palestinian public opinion on the new political realities on the Palestinian ground including the Palestinian Israeli negotiations, Prof. Rami Hamdallah’s government, the possibility of conducting presidential, legislative and local council elections in addition to the political affiliations of Palestinian people.

 

The sample included 1360 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 860 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 1.91% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

 

_____________________________________________________________________

The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not, by any means, represent the opinion of An-Najah National University.

 

The General Results:

  • 65.4% of respondents expected the return of Palestinians and Israelis to negotiations under American auspices; 27.1% expected the opposite.
  • 54.7% of respondents supported the return of Palestinians to negotiations; 42.1% rejected
  • 41.3% of respondents supported the extension of negotiations until the end of the current year; 52.5% rejected
  • 87.9% of respondents expected the failure of negotiations if they are extended until the end of this year; 21.6% expected them to succeed.
  • 64.2% of respondents expected Israel to release the last group of prisoners who were supposed to be released at the end of March; 27.8% expected the opposite.
  • 51.6% of respondents supported continuing negotiations if Israel releases the last group of prisoners; 44.7% rejected.
  • 79.6% of respondents supported the Palestinian Authority’s decision to join international organizations.
  • 71% of respondents supported the Palestinian Authority’s decision to proceed in joining international organizations even if Israel releases the last group of prisoners.
  • 75.5% of respondents saw that the Israeli side is responsible for stopping negotiations; 5.5% saw that it is the Palestinian side.
  • 63.5% of respondents expected the USA to intervene and to exert pressure on some sides to lead the negotiation to a successful end.
  • From among respondents who supported an intervention by the USA to exert pressure on some sides to lead these negotiations to a successful end, 60.8% expected the pressure to be exerted on the Palestinian side; 13.9% expected it to be exerted on the Israeli side while 24.3% expected it to be on both sides.
  • 25.9% of respondents saw that the USA is serious this time in leading the negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis to a successful end.
  • 11.1% of respondents considered the US an honest arbitrator between the two sides of conflict.
  • 88% of respondents looked at the US policy towards the Palestinian issue as generally biased towards the Israeli side; 2.6% said that it is biased towards the Palestinian side while 6% said that it is neutral.
  • 68.1% of respondents supported adding other countries to the auspices of the negotiations besides the United States.
  • 76.1% of respondents expected Israel to impose economic sanctions on the Palestinian Authority if negotiations fail.
  • 80.4% of respondents supported conducting a referendum among Palestinians before signing any peace agreement with Israel; 14.2% rejected. 
  • 37.9% of respondents supported reaching a provisional agreement similar to that of the Oslo Accord as a result of these negotiations; 54.1% rejected.
  • 50.7% of respondents supported the two-state solution provided that there will be a Palestinian state living side by side with Israel; 45.2% rejected.
  • 31.3% of respondents supported the one-state solution in which both Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal rights; 62.8% rejected
  • 26.8% of respondents said that they are optimistic towards the success of the peace process between the PA and Israel; 68.7% said that they are pessimistic
  • 62.9% of respondents expected the outbreak of a third intifada (uprising) in the West Bank in case the current peace negotiations fail.
  • 42.9% of respondents supported the rise of an armed uprising (intifada) in the West Bank; 51.5% rejected.
  • 56% of respondents supported the rise of a nonviolent, unarmed popular uprising (intifada); 37.4% rejected.
  • 33.3% of respondents supported dissolving the Palestinian Authority in case the current peace negotiations fail; 59.3% rejected.
  • 49.2% of respondents said that they are optimistic towards implementing the Palestinian reconciliation agreement in the near future; 46% said they are pessimistic.
  • 64.2% of respondents believed that the surrounding Arab and international circumstances necessitate conducting a national reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas.
  • 54.6% of respondents believed that Prof. Hamdallah’s government is capable of managing people’s affairs in the West Bank if Israel imposes economic sanctions on the Palestinian Authority; 31.1% expected the opposite.
  • 57.3% of respondents expected the fall of the PA in case enough funds become unavailable.
  • 66.2% of respondents saw that Prof. Hamdallah’s government is more capable of managing the internal Palestinian affairs while 17.1% saw that Ismail Haniyeh’s government is more capable.
  • 76.6% of respondents assessed the performance of Prof. Hamdallah’s governments as “good”.
  • 31.7% of respondents assessed the performance of Ismail Haniyeh’s governments as “good”.
  • 80.1% of respondents supported conducting the coming presidential elections after ending the division; 12.8% supported conducting them despite division.
  • 80.4% of respondents supported conducting the coming legislative elections after ending the division; 12.4% supported conducting them despite division.
  • 44.6% of respondents expected that if elections are conducted in the present time in the Palestinian Territories, they will be fair.
  • 80.9% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 35.2% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 11.7% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
  • 80.2% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 35.7% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 12.2% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
  • If PLC elections are to be conducted, 44% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 14.2% expected the winning of Hamas.
  • 83% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming municipality and local council elections. From among those who said they will participate, 30.6% said that they will give their votes to Fateh’s candidates, 10.7% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates and 10.3% said they will give their votes to the representative of their family or clan.
    • In case PLC elections will be conducted, 31.5% of respondents preferred conducting elections on the basis of electoral lists; 28.9% preferred conducting them on the basis of persons.
    • 34.4% of respondents said that the current political, security and economic circumstances compel them to desire emigrating.
    • 50.1% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
    • 62.3% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
    • 74.1% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.
    • As for political affiliation, respondents gave the following results:
  • 30% of respondents preferred conducting local council and municipality elections on the basis of electoral lists; 33% preferred conducting them on the basis of persons.

 

People’s Party

0.9%

Democratic Front

0.8%

Islamic Jihad

1.8%

Fateh

34.2%

Hamas

10.8%

Fida

0.4%

Popular Front

3.2%

Palestinian National Initiative

0.8%

I am an independent nationalist

7.1%

I am an independent Islamist

2.6%

None of the above

37.2%

Others

0.6%

 


 

The General Results of the Poll

 

 Do you expect the Palestinians and the Israelis to go back to negotiations under the US auspices?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

65.4

65.8

64.6

No

27.1

28.1

25.4

No opinion/I do not know

7.5

6.0

10.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you support or reject a Palestinian return to the negotiation table?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I strongly support

13.1

11.0

16.6

I support

41.6

44.9

36.0

I reject

31.5

33.4

28.2

I strongly reject

10.6

8.8

13.6

No opinion/I do not know

3.2

1.9

5.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you support or reject an extension of the negotiations until the end of the current year?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I strongly support

7.9

6.0

11.2

I support

33.3

36.3

28.2

I reject

40.2

43.7

34.2

I strongly reject

12.3

9.7

16.8

No opinion/I do not know

6.3

4.3

9.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do expect negotiations to succeed or to fail if they are extended until the end of the current year?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I expect them to succeed

21.6

22.1

20.8

I expect them to fail

66.3

69.5

60.6

No opinion/I do not know

12.1

8.4

18.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you expect Israel to release the last group of prisoners who were expected to be released at the end of March?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

64.2

69.8

54.6

No

27.8

25.7

31.4

No opinion/I do not know

8.0

4.5

14.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 If Israel frees the last group of prisoners, do you support or reject continuing negotiations?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I strongly support

9.9

7.1

14.8

I support

41.7

47.6

31.6

I reject

35.1

35.5

34.6

I strongly reject

9.6

7.4

13.4

No opinion/I do not know

3.6

2.4

5.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you support or reject the Palestinian Authority’s decision to join international organizations?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I strongly support

24.3

20.1

31.4

I support

55.4

62.2

43.6

I reject

11.7

11.2

12.6

I strongly reject

2.5

2.6

2.4

No opinion/I do not know

6.2

4.0

10.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 If Israel frees the last group of prisoners, do you support or reject going on with the Palestinian Authority’s decision to join international organizations?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I strongly support

20.4

15.9

28.2

I support

50.5

59.0

36.0

I reject

19.9

18.7

21.8

I strongly reject

2.1

1.7

2.6

No opinion/I do not know

7.1

4.7

11.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 In your opinion, which side (the Palestinian or the Israeli) is responsible for the stopping of the negotiations?  

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

The Palestinian side

5.5

4.1

8.0

The Israeli side

70.0

69.5

70.8

Both sides

20.2

23.3

15.0

No opinion/I do not know

4.3

3.1

6.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you expect the USA to exert pressure on some sides in order to lead the negotiations to a successful end?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

63.5

68.6

54.8

No

28.7

27.9

30.0

No opinion/I do not know

7.8

3.5

15.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 If the answer to the above question is “yes” on which side do you expect the USA to exert pressure?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

The Palestinian side

60.8

62.7

56.6

The Israeli side

13.9

15.6

10.2

Both sides

24.3

20.7

32.1

No opinion/I do not know

1.0

1.0

1.1

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you think that the USA is serious this time in its endeavors to bring the peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis to successful end?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

25.9

26.9

24.2

No

66.3

68.5

62.4

No opinion/I do not know

7.9

4.7

13.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


 

 Do you consider the USA a fair arbitrator in the current negotiations between the two sides of conflict?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

11.1

10.2

12.6

No

84.2

87.0

79.4

No opinion/I do not know

4.7

2.8

8.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 In general how do you see the policy of the US towards the Palestinian cause?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Biased towards Israel

88.0

89.8

85.0

Biased towards the Palestinians

2.6

2.2

3.4

Neutral

6.0

6.4

5.2

No opinion/I do not know

3.4

1.6

6.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you support or reject adding other countries besides the United States to the auspices of the negotiations?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I strongly support

20.6

16.7

27.2

I support

47.5

50.5

42.4

I reject

20.3

24.1

13.8

I strongly reject

4.9

4.5

5.6

No opinion/I do not know

6.7

4.2

11.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you expect Israel to impose economic sanctions on the Palestinian Authority, if the negotiations between the two sides fail?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

76.1

79.0

71.2

No

16.8

17.9

15.0

No opinion/I do not know

7.1

3.1

13.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


 

 Do you support or reject a referendum to be conducted by the Palestinians before signing any peace agreement with Israel?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I strongly support

33.7

28.7

42.2

I support

46.8

52.7

36.6

I  reject

12.4

14.2

9.2

I strongly reject

1.8

0.9

3.2

No opinion/I do not know

5.4

3.5

8.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you support or reject reaching a provisional solution similar to the Oslo Accord as a result of these negotiations?

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I strongly support

5.7

3.4

9.8

I support

32.1

33.0

30.6

I reject

39.1

41.7

34.6

I strongly reject

15.0

14.9

15.2

No opinion/I do not know

8.0

7.0

9.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you support or reject the two-state solution provided that a Palestinian state is created to live side by side with Israel?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I strongly support

8.5

7.2

10.8

I support

42.1

47.4

33.0

I reject

28.0

30.3

24.0

I strongly reject

17.2

14.0

22.8

No opinion/I do not know

4.1

1.0

9.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


 

 Do you support or reject a one-state solution in which Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal rights?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I strongly support

6.2

4.0

10.0

I support

25.1

26.6

22.4

I reject

41.3

49.2

27.6

I strongly reject

21.5

17.4

28.4

No opinion/I do not know

6.0

2.8

11.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you consider yourself optimistic or pessimistic towards the success of the peace process between the Palestinian Authority and Israel?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Optimistic

26.8

27.8

25.0

Pessimistic

68.7

69.3

67.6

No opinion/I do not know

4.6

2.9

7.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 In case the current peace negotiations fail, do you expect the outbreak of a third intifada (uprising)?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

62.9

66.4

57.0

No

30.0

29.9

30.2

No opinion/I do not know

7.1

3.7

12.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you support or reject the rise of an armed intifada in the West Bank?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I support

42.9

37.6

52.0

I reject

51.5

59.3

38.2

No opinion/I do not know

5.6

3.1

9.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


 

 Do you support or reject the rise of popular, unarmed and nonviolent resistance?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I support

56.0

64.9

40.8

I reject

37.4

32.6

45.8

No opinion/I do not know

6.5

2.6

13.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 In case the current peace negotiations fail, do you support or reject dissolving the Palestinian Authority?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I support

33.3

34.7

31.0

I reject

59.3

61.6

55.4

No opinion/I do not know

7.4

3.7

13.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Are you optimistic or pessimistic towards holding and implementing a reconciliation agreement between Fateh and Hamas in the near future?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Optimistic

49.2

56.0

37.4

Pessimistic

46.0

41.3

54.2

No opinion/I do not know

4.8

2.7

8.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you think that the surrounding Arab and international circumstances necessitate conducting national reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

64.2

64.9

63.0

No

29.0

30.9

25.6

No opinion/I do not know

6.8

4.2

11.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


 

 Do you believe that Prof. Hamdallah’s government will be capable of managing the affairs of the Palestinian people in the West Bank if Israel imposes economic sanctions on the Palestinian Authority?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

54.6

59.4

46.2

No

31.1

30.5

32.2

No opinion/I do not know

14.3

10.1

21.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you think that the PA will collapse if enough funds become unavailable to it?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

57.3

61.0

50.8

No

36.0

34.5

38.4

No opinion/I do not know

6.8

4.4

10.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 As you know there is a government in the West Bank presided by Prof. Rami Hamdallah and another government in the Gaza Strip presided by Ismail Haniyeh’s. In your opinion which one is more capable of running the internal Palestinian affairs?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Prof. Hamdallah’s government

66.2

74.8

51.4

Ismail Haniyeh’s government 

17.1

18.3

15.2

No opinion/I do not know

16.7

7.0

33.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

  How do you assess the performance of Prof. Hamdallah’s government?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Good

76.6

82.7

66.2

Bad

10.3

7.1

15.8

No opinion/I do not know

13.1

10.2

18.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


 

  How do you assess the performance of Ismail Haniyeh’s government?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Good

31.7

35.7

24.8

Bad

46.2

39.4

57.8

No opinion/I do not know

22.1

24.9

17.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you support conducting the coming Presidential elections despite the division or after ending it?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

After ending the division

80.1

81.2

78.4

Despite the division

12.8

13.6

11.4

No opinion/I do not know

7.1

5.2

10.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you support conducting the coming legislative elections despite the division or after ending it?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

After ending division

80.4

81.4

78.8

Despite division

12.4

13.1

11.2

No opinion/I do not know

7.1

5.5

10.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 If elections are to be conducted in the Palestinian Territories at the present time do you think that they will be fair?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

44.6

45.7

42.8

No

43.5

46.5

38.4

No opinion/I do not know

11.8

7.8

18.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


 If presidential elections are held in the present time, to whom from among the following do you give your vote?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

An independent candidate

9.9

11.7

6.6

A candidate from the left

3.1

2.3

4.4

A candidate from Hamas

9.5

7.9

12.2

A candidate from Fateh

28.5

25.8

33.0

A national independent candidate

5.2

4.5

6.4

An Islamic independent candidate

3.5

2.6

5.2

I will not participate in the elections

19.1

23.1

12.2

I have not decided yet

21.3

22.0

20.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 If new PLC elections are conducted, whom will you vote for?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

An independent ticket

8.4

10.1

5.4

A ticket from the left

6.0

1.9

5.0

A ticket from Hamas

9.8

8.5

12.0

A ticket from Fateh

28.6

25.5

34.0

A national independent ticket

5.5

5.1

6.2

An Islamic independent ticket

3.8

2.8

5.6

I will not participate in the elections

19.8

24.2

12.2

I have not decided yet

21.1

22.0

19.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 If new legislative elections are to be held today, which of the following will win?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

An independent Islamists bloc

4.1

4.3

3.8

An independent Nationalist bloc

9.4

8.4

11.2

A Fateh bloc

44.0

48.3

36.6

A Hamas bloc

14.2

14.2

14.2

A bloc from leftist organizations

2.4

1.3

4.4

No opinion/I do not know

25.9

23.6

29.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 

  If municipality and local council elections are to be held, who do you vote for?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

A block that represents the family or clan

8.5

12.7

1.6

An independent ticket

7.9

9.2

5.6

A ticket from the left

3.2

1.6

6.0

A ticket from Hamas

8.9

6.8

12.4

A ticket from Fateh

25.4

23.4

28.8

A national independent ticket

5.0

3.4

7.8

An Islamic independent ticket

3.0

2.6

3.6

I will not participate in the elections

17.0

20.5

11.2

I have not decided yet

21.0

19.9

23.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 In case PLC elections are conducted, do you prefer conducting them on the basis of electoral lists or on the basis of persons?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Electoral lists

31.5

32.7

29.6

Persons

28.9

32.1

23.4

Mixed

30.7

30.0

31.8

No opinion/I do not know

8.9

5.2

15.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you prefer conducting local council elections on the basis of electoral lists or on the basis of individual candidates?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Electoral lists

30.0

30.4

29.4

Individual candidates

33.0

39.6

21.8

Mixed

28.5

25.3

34.0

No opinion/I do not know

8.5

4.7

14.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


 

 Do the current political, security and economic circumstances compel you to desire emigrating abroad?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

34.4

26.4

48.2

No

63.2

73.0

46.4

No opinion/I do not know

2.4

0.6

5.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Are you worried about your life under the present circumstances?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

50.1

42.6

63.2

No

48.1

57.1

32.6

No opinion/I do not know

1.8

0.3

4.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Are you pessimistic or optimistic towards the general Palestinian situation at this stage?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Optimistic

32.9

40.0

20.8

Pessimistic

62.3

57.2

71.0

No opinion/I do not know

4.8

2.8

8.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Under the present circumstances, do you feel that you, your family and your properties are safe?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

24.2

28.5

16.8

May be

38.2

34.4

44.8

No

35.9

36.7

34.4

No opinion/I do not know

1.7

0.3

4.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


    Which of the following political affiliations do you support?

PARTY

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

People’s Party

0.9

1.0

0.6

Democratic Front

0.8

0.9

0.6

Islamic Jihad

1.8

1.2

3.0

Fateh

31.2

33.6

35.2

Hamas

10.8

10.1

12.0

Fida

0.4

0.0

1.0

Popular Front

3.2

2.1

5.0

Palestinian National Initiative

0.4

0.5

0.2

I am an independent nationalist

7.1

6.3

8.6

I am an independent Islamist

2.6

2.3

3.2

None of the above

37.2

41.6

29.6

Others

0.6

0.3

1.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


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