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Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No. 47

Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll

No. 47

1-3 November 2013

Background

Peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis resumed last July under American auspices, after for a hiatus of nearly three years. Both sides agreed that the negotiations be held inside Israel and the Palestinian Territories. US Secretary of State John Kerry asserted that the negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis would be secret and that any announced results must be only through him. Kerry also asserted the commitment of the US administration to follow up with negotiations until an agreement is reached within a period of six to nine months.

After the resignation of Dr. Salam Fayyad’s government, Prof. Rami Hamdallah was entrusted twice with forming new Palestinian governments.

Divisions between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip still persist while each side adheres to its convictions, and there are no signs that the division will end.

 

 

The Results

Following are the results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No. 47, conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 1-3 November 2013. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

This poll undertakes Palestinian public opinion on the new political realities on the Palestinian ground, including the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, Prof. Rami Hamdallah’s government, and the possibility of conducting presidential, legislative and local council elections, in addition to the political affiliations of Palestinian people.

The sample included 1360 people whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed to 860 people from the West Bank and 500 people from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still, 1.76% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

_____________________________________________________________________

The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not, by any means, represent the opinion of An-Najah National University.

The General Results:

  • 44.2% of respondents supported a return to Palestinian-Israeli negotiations under American auspices; 53.8% rejected. 
  • 21.6% of respondents expected the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations held under American auspices to succeed within the defined period of nine months; 70.3% expected them to fail.
  • 48.9% of respondents supported the Palestinians continuing these negotiations; 49.1% rejected.
  • 58.6% of respondents expected the USA to intervene and to exert pressure on some side to lead the negotiation to a successful end.
  • Among respondents who supported an intervention by the USA to exert pressure on some side to lead these negotiations to a successful end, 59% expected the pressure to be exerted on the Palestinian side; 14.4% expected it to be exerted on the Israeli side, while 25.1% expected it to be on both sides.
  • 26% of respondents think that the USA is serious this time in leading the negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis to a successful end.
  • 10.7% of respondents considered the US an honest arbitrator between the two sides of conflict.
  • 90.1% of respondents looked at US policy towards the Palestinian issue as generally biased towards the Israeli side; 3% said that it is biased towards the Palestinian side, while 5.4% said that it is neutral.
  • 81.5% of respondents supported conducting a referendum among Palestinians before signing any peace agreement with Israel; 15.7% rejected. 
  • 40.7% of respondents supported reaching a provisional agreement similar to that of the Oslo Accord as a result of these negotiations; 53.6% rejected.
  • Now that 20 years have elapsed since the signing of the Oslo Accord, 66.2% of respondents believe that it has hurt the Palestinian cause; 27.1% said it has benefited it.
  • 51.8% of respondents supported the two-state solution, provided that there will be a Palestinian state living side-by-side with Israel; 46.2% rejected.
  • 28.8% of respondents said that they are optimistic towards the success of the peace process between the PA and Israel; 66.7% said that they are pessimistic
  • 57.8% of respondents expected the outbreak of a third intifada (uprising) in the West Bank in case the current peace negotiations fail.
  • 38.5% of respondents supported the rise of an armed uprising (intifada) in the West Bank; 55.7% rejected.
  • 58.7% of respondents supported the rise of a nonviolent, unarmed popular uprising (intifada); 37% rejected.
  • 35.8% of respondents supported dissolving the Palestinian Authority should the current peace negotiations fail; 57.7% rejected.
  • 51.8% of respondents said that they are optimistic about implementing the Palestinian reconciliation agreement in the near future; 44.1% said they are pessimistic.
  • 62.3% of respondents believed that the surrounding Arab and international circumstances necessitate conducting a national reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas.
  • 28.8% of respondents said that implementing the Palestinian reconciliation agreement will strengthen and speed up the peace process, while 47.5% said that it will hinder and delay it.
  • 13.69% of respondents believed that the current incidents that are happening in Egypt will lead to speeding a national Palestinian reconciliation; 52.1% believed they will delay it and 21.5% believed that they will abort possibilities for reconciliation.
  • 10.7% of respondents believed that the change in the political regime in Egypt will lead to strengthening Hamas; 57.3% believed that it will lead to weakening Hamas.
  • 72.6% of respondents supported appointing Prof. Rami Hamdallah as Prime Minister; 16.1% rejected.
  • 66.4% of respondents believed that Prof. Hamdallah’s government is capable of managing the situation in the West Bank; 19.3% believed it is not.
  • 64.2% of respondents believed that the effect of Prof. Hamdallah’s government on the Palestinian people in the West Bank will be positive, while 17.2% believed it will be negative
  • 59.2% of respondents expected the fall of the PA should sufficient funds become unavailable.
  • 68.2% of respondents feel that Prof. Hamdallah’s government is more capable of managing the internal Palestinian affairs, while 24% feel that Ismail Haniyeh’s government is more capable.
  • 70.2% of respondents assessed the performance of Prof. Hamdallah’s government as “good”.
  • 37.9% of respondents assessed the performance of Ismail Haniyeh’s government as “good”.
  • 75.7% of respondents supported conducting the coming presidential elections after ending the division; 18.2% supported conducting them despite division.
  • 76.1% of respondents supported conducting the coming legislative elections after ending the division; 17.3% supported conducting them despite division.
  • 46.5% of respondents expected that if elections are conducted in the present time in the PalestinianTerritories, they will be fair.
  • 81% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 35.9% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 12.5% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
  • 81.6% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 36.9% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 12.3% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
  • If PLC elections are to be conducted, 45.9% of respondents expect Fateh to win; 13.8% expect Hamas to win.
    • 83.7% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming municipal and local council elections. Among those who said they will participate, 30.2% said that they will vote for Fateh’s candidates, 10.9% said they vote for Hamas' candidates, and 12% said they will give vote for the representative of their family or clan.
  • In case PLC elections are conducted, 31.3% of respondents preferred conducting elections on the basis of electoral lists; 35.3% preferred conducting them on the basis of candidates.
  • 34.1% of respondents said that the current political, security and economic circumstances compel them to desire emigrating.
  • 45% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
  • 60.1% of respondents said that they are pessimistic about the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
  • 73.7% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and property under the current circumstances.
  • As for political affiliation, respondents gave the following results:
  • 30.4% of respondents preferred conducting local council and municipality elections on the basis of electoral lists; 38.2% preferred conducting them on the basis of candidates.

 

People’s Party

1.3%

Democratic Front

1.1%

Islamic Jihad

2.4%

Fateh

35.2%

Hamas

11.3%

Fida

0.3%

Popular Front

3.6%

Palestinian National Initiative

0.7%

I am an independent nationalist

6.3%

I am an independent Islamist

3.7%

None of the above

33.4%

Others

0.8%

 


 

The General Results of the Poll

 

Now that the peace negotiations between the Palestinians and Israelis are resumed, do you support or reject these negotiations?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I strongly support

9.1

7.9

11.2

I support

35.1

38.8

28.8

I reject

39.2

43.7

31.4

I strongly reject

16.6

7.7

26.6

No opinion/I do not know

1.9

1.9

2.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

Do you expect the negotiations to fail or to succeed within the defined period of nine months?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I expect them to succeed

21.6

22.2

20.6

I expect them to fail

70.3

73.6

64.6

No opinion/I do not know

8.1

4.2

14.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

Do you support or reject Palestinian participation in these negotiations?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I strongly support

9.0

7.0

12.4

I support

39.9

43.3

34.2

I reject

37.9

41.4

32.0

I strongly reject

11.2

6.9

18.6

No opinion/I do not know

2.0

1.5

2.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

Do you expect the USA to exert pressure on some side in order to lead the negotiations to a successful end?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

58.6

60.0

56.2

No

34.6

37.0

30.6

No opinion/I do not know

6.8

3.0

13.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


 

 

If the answer to the above question is “yes” on which side do you expect the USA to exert pressure?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

The Palestinian side

59.0

64.0

50.0

The Israeli side

14.4

12.0

18.9

Both sides

25.1

23.8

27.5

No opinion/I do not know

1.4

0.2

3.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

Do you think that the USA is serious this time in its endeavors to bring the peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis to successful end?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

26.0

26.9

24.4

No

65.0

67.9

60.0

No opinion/I do not know

9.0

5.2

15.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

Do you consider the USA a fair arbitrator in the current negotiations between the two sides of conflict?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

10.7

10.5

11.0

No

84.2

87.7

78.2

No opinion/I do not know

5.1

1.9

10.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

In general how do you see the policy of the US towards the Palestinian cause?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Biased towards Israel

90.1

92.7

85.6

Biased towards the Palestinians

3.0

1.7

5.2

Neutral

5.4

4.8

6.6

No opinion/I do not know

1.5

0.8

2.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


 Do you support or reject a referendum to be conducted by the Palestinians before signing any peace agreement with Israel?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I strongly support

33.4

30.6

38.2

I support

48.1

52.1

41.2

I  reject

13.0

14.3

10.8

I strongly reject

2.7

0.9

5.8

No opinion/I do not know

2.8

2.1

4.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

Do you support or reject reaching a provisional solution similar to the Oslo Accord as a result of these negotiations?

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I strongly support

6.1

4.3

9.2

I support

34.6

36.6

31.0

I reject

39.7

45.5

29.8

I strongly reject

13.9

9.7

21.2

No opinion/I do not know

5.7

4.0

8.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 

Now that 20 years have elapsed since signing the Oslo Accord, do you think that the Oslo Accord benefited or hurt the Palestinian cause?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

It benefited to a great extent

4.0

1.9

7.6

It benefited

23.1

25.5

19.0

It hurt

42.9

46.5

36.6

It hurt to a great extent

23.3

20.8

27.6

No opinion/I do not know

6.8

5.3

9.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you support or reject the two-state solution, provided that a Palestinian state is created to live side-by-side with Israel?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I strongly support

8.7

7.8

10.2

I support

43.1

50.8

29.8

I reject

27.7

31.6

21.0

I strongly reject

18.5

8.4

35.8

No opinion/I do not know

2.1

1.4

3.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 

 Do you consider yourself optimistic or pessimistic towards the success of the peace process between the Palestinian Authority and Israel?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Optimistic

28.8

32.1

23.2

Pessimistic

66.7

66.0

67.8

No opinion/I do not know

4.5

1.9

9.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

If the current peace negotiations fail, do you expect the outbreak of a third intifada (uprising)?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

57.8

57.7

58.0

No

35.3

38.6

29.6

No opinion/I do not know

6.9

3.7

12.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

Do you support or reject the rise of an armed intifada in the West Bank?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I support

38.5

31.6

50.2

I reject

55.7

65.6

38.8

No opinion/I do not know

5.8

2.8

11.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you support or reject the rise of popular, unarmed and nonviolent resistance?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I support

58.7

63.4

50.6

I reject

37.0

34.8

40.8

No opinion/I do not know

4.3

1.9

8.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 In case the current peace negotiations fail, do you support or reject dissolving the Palestinian Authority?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I support

35.8

34.5

38.0

I reject

57.7

62.6

49.4

No opinion/I do not know

6.5

2.9

12.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


 

Are you optimistic or pessimistic towards holding and implementing a reconciliation agreement between Fateh and Hamas in the near future?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Optimistic

51.8

55.6

45.2

Pessimistic

44.1

41.9

48.0

No opinion/I do not know

4.1

2.6

6.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you think that the surrounding Arab and international circumstances necessitate national reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

62.3

66.3

55.4

No

33.5

31.3

37.2

No opinion/I do not know

4.3

2.4

7.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

  Do you think that the implementation of the reconciliation agreement will hinder or support the peace process?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

It will hinder the peace process

28.8

29.5

27.6

It will support the peace process

47.5

49.8

43.6

It will not have any effect

20.1

18.5

23.0

No opinion/I do not know

3.5

2.2

5.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 What do you think the events that are happening in Egypt will lead to?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

They will speed national reconciliation

13.9

12.9

15.6

They will delay the national reconciliation

52.1

55.6

46.2

They will not allow the national reconciliation to happen

21.5

20.2

23.8

No opinion/I do not know

12.4

11.3

14.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


 

 What do you think the change in the political regime in Egypt will lead to?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

It will strengthen Hamas

10.7

12.3

8.0

It will weaken Hamas

57.3

53.0

64.6

It has no effect

24.6

26.3

21.6

No opinion/I do not know

7.4

8.4

5.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you support or reject appointing Prof. Rami Hamdallah as Prime Minister?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I strongly support

20.1

22.0

16.8

I support

52.6

60.0

39.8

I reject

11.3

9.3

14.8

I strongly reject

4.8

1.3

10.8

No opinion/I do not know

11.3

7.4

17.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you think that Prof. Hamdallah’s government is capable of managing the situation in the West Bank?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

66.4

77.6

47.2

No

19.3

14.3

28.0

No opinion/I do not know

14.3

8.1

24.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 How do you think the effect of Prof. Hamadallah’s government will be on Palestinians in the West Bank?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Positive

64.2

74.8

46.0

Negative

17.2

11.5

27.0

No opinion/I do not know

18.6

13.7

27.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you think that the PA will collapse if sufficient funds become unavailable?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

59.2

63.1

52.4

No

35.5

33.8

38.4

No opinion/I do not know

5.3

3.0

9.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 As you know, there is a government in the West Bank presided by Prof. Rami Hamdallah and another government in the Gaza Strip presided by Ismail Haniyeh. In your opinion, which one is more capable of running  internal affairs?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Prof. Hamdallah’s government

68.2

69.7

65.8

Ismail Haniyeh’s government 

24.0

23.4

25.2

No opinion/I do not know

7.7

7.0

9.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 How do you assess the performance of Prof. Hamdallah’s government?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Good

70.2

75.9

60.4

Bad

12.3

7.3

20.8

No opinion/I do not know

17.5

16.7

18.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 How do you assess the performance of Ismail Haniyeh’s government?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Good

37.9

41.0

32.4

Bad

44.5

39.3

53.4

No opinion/I do not know

17.6

19.7

14.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you support conducting the coming Presidential elections despite the division, or after ending it?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

After ending the division

75.7

78.7

70.6

Despite the division

18.2

16.3

21.6

No opinion/I do not know

6.0

5.0

7.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

Do you support conducting the coming legislative elections despite the division, or after ending it?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

After ending division

76.1

78.7

71.6

Despite division

17.3

16.3

19.0

No opinion/I do not know

6.6

5.0

9.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

If elections are to be conducted in the Palestinian Territories at the present time, do you think that they will be fair?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

46.5

49.3

41.6

No

44.7

44.8

44.6

No opinion/I do not know

8.8

5.9

13.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 If presidential elections are held in the present time, to whom from among the following do you give your vote?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

An independent candidate

9.3

8.5

10.8

A candidate from the left

3.5

2.7

4.8

A candidate from Hamas

10.1

8.8

12.4

A candidate from Fateh

29.1

27.9

31.2

A national independent candidate

4.7

4.3

5.4

An Islamic independent candidate

4.7

3.6

6.6

I will not participate in the elections

19.0

21.3

15.0

I have not decided yet

19.6

22.9

13.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 If new PLC elections are conducted, whom will you vote for?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

An independent ticket

8.3

7.4

9.8

A ticket from the left

3.5

2.8

4.8

A ticket from Hamas

10.1

8.7

12.4

A ticket from Fateh

30.1

28.7

32.4

A national independent ticket

4.9

4.8

5.2

An Islamic independent ticket

6.0

3.7

7.2

I will not participate in the elections

18.4

20.6

14.6

I have not decided yet

19.7

23.3

13.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 If new legislative elections are to be held today, which of the following will win?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

An independent Islamists bloc

4.3

4.0

4.8

An independent Nationalist bloc

10.8

7.8

16.0

A Fateh bloc

45.9

49.8

39.2

A Hamas bloc

13.8

14.4

12.8

A bloc from leftist organizations

2.4

1.9

3.2

No opinion/I do not know

22.9

22.2

24.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

  If municipality and local council elections are to be held, who do you vote for?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

A block that represents the family or clan

10.2

13.3

5.0

An independent ticket

7.6

6.9

8.8

A ticket from the left

2.6

1.9

3.8

A ticket from Hamas

9.3

7.9

11.6

A ticket from Fateh

25.8

23.0

30.4

A national independent ticket

5.6

4.3

7.8

An Islamic independent ticket

3.9

3.0

5.4

I will not participate in the elections

14.8

17.5

10.2

I have not decided yet

20.2

22.2

17.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

In case PLC elections are conducted, do you prefer conducting them on the basis of electoral lists or on the basis of individual candidates?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Electoral lists

31.3

30.9

32.0

Persons

35.3

37.1

32.2

Mixed

26.0

27.3

23.6

No opinion/I do not know

7.4

4.7

12.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do you prefer conducting local council elections on the basis of electoral lists or on the basis of individual candidates?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Electoral lists

30.4

30.5

30.4

Individual candidates

38.2

39.8

35.4

Mixed

25.1

25.3

24.8

No opinion/I do not know

6.3

4.4

9.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Do the current political, security and economic circumstances compel you to desire emigrating abroad?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

34.1

27.0

46.4

No

64.3

72.6

50.0

No opinion/I do not know

1.6

0.5

3.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


   Are you worried about your life under the present circumstances?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

45.0

39.2

55.0

No

53.3

60.6

40.8

No opinion/I do not know

1.7

0.2

4.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Are you pessimistic or optimistic towards the general Palestinian situation at this stage?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Optimistic

35.6

43.5

22.0

Pessimistic

60.1

55.3

68.2

No opinion/I do not know

4.3

1.2

9.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 Under the present circumstances, do you feel that you, your family and your property are safe?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

25.7

30.9

16.8

May be

39.6

35.9

45.8

No

34.1

33.0

36.0

No opinion/I do not know

0.6

0.1

1.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 

  Which of the following political affiliations do you support?

PARTY

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

People’s Party

1.3

1.3

1.4

Democratic Front

1.1

0.7

1.8

Islamic Jihad

2.4

0.9

4.8

Fateh

35.2

34.3

36.8

Hamas

11.3

11.3

11.2

Fida

0.3

0.0

0.8

Popular Front

3.6

2.9

4.8

Palestinian National Initiative

0.7

0.3

1.4

I am an independent nationalist

6.3

5.6

7.4

I am an independent Islamist

3.7

2.4

5.8

None of the above

33.4

39.9

22.2

Others

0.8

0.3

1.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


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