Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No. 40
Background
The Arab League gave approval to the Palestinian Authority to conduct proximity talks with Israel provided that Israel stops settlement activities. Israel, however, and upon the visit of the US Vice President declared its intention to build settlement clusters in East Jerusalem
Some calls sprang up lately to declare the establishment of a Palestinian state from one side by the Palestinian Authority, to seek international recognition from the United Nations and to ask the Security Council to draw the final borders of the Palestinian State.
The last Arab summit conference was held in Libya and some resolutions were made to support the Palestinian Authority and to raise concern and particular support for the issue of Jerusalem
On another side of the scene, the Ministry of Local Government declared that all municipalities and local councils are caretaker councils until mid July when Municipality and local council elections will be held
The Results
Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 40 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 8-10 April 2010. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.
Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 40 undertakes the current political developments such as issues related to the national reconciliation, the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in view of the continuing settlement activities in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, the coming municipality and local council elections, the performance of the governments of Salam Fayyad and Ismail Haniyeh in addition to political affiliations and other issues.
The sample included 1861 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 861 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 2.7% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.
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The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not, by any means, represent the opinion of An-Najah National University.
The General Results:
· 71.3% of respondents supported the call of Prime Minister Salam Fayyad to the Palestinian Authority to declare the establishment of a Palestinian State in August 2011.
· 21.3% of respondents believed that the USA will succeed in exerting pressure on Israel to freeze settlement activities in East Jerusalem for four months.
· 48.7% of respondents supported conducting direct negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli Government; 47.3% rejected.
· 34% of respondents supported conducting indirect negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli Government; 60.8% rejected.
· 78.6% of respondents supported the decision of the Palestinian Authority not to negotiate with the Israeli Government while the latter continues to build settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
· 83% of respondents rejected conducting negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and Israel in case Israel continues to build settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem; 14.3% supported.
· 9.3% of respondents believed that the decisions of the Arab Summit relating to Jerusalem were satisfactory; 83% believed that they were not.
· 11.6% of respondents believed that the Arab countries will carry out the decisions of the Arab Summit relating to the Palestinian question and Jerusalem while 79.5% believed that they will not.
· 56.1% of respondents supported the declaration made by a group of Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip to stop firing rockets against Israel from Gaza; 37.7% rejected.
· 55.6% of respondents believed that the stand of Hamas towards firing rockets against Israel has become congruent with that of the Palestinian Authority.
·51.3% of respondents believed that it is possible to reach a national reconciliation agreement between Fateh and Hamas in the near future; 42.5% believed the contrary.
· 15.7% of respondents believed that Hamas is the side which benefits most from signing the Palestinian reconciliation agreement while 22.2% believed that Fateh is the side that benefits most.
·50.6% of respondents said that they are not optimistic of signing a reconciliation agreement in the near future.
· 44.7% of respondents believed that the sides of the Palestinian dialogue, particularly Fateh and Hamas, are not concerned with ending the Palestinian split.
· 48.9% of respondents believed that the reason behind not reaching a Palestinian reconciliation agreement is that some people seek to achieve personal interests; 42.6% believed that the reason has to do with seeking factional interests.
· 17.6% of respondents believed that the delay in the signing of the Palestinian reconciliation agreement is because of pressures exerted by some Arab sides; 27.6% believed that it is because of some regional pressures, and 44% believed that it is because of the factional interests of Fateh and Hamas.
·41.7% of respondents believed that concluding the Shalit deal will speed up the national reconciliation process.
· 32.7% of respondents believed that signing the national reconciliation pact will lead to speeding the peace process; 12.3% believed that signing the reconciliation pact will freeze and entangle the peace process.
· In case a national reconciliation is achieved, respondents said that it will influence their conditions as follows:
- Social conditions 60.0%
- Political conditions 59.8%
- Psychological conditions 70.5%
· 51.7% of respondents agreed on the establishment of a Palestinian State within the total area of the1967 boarders; 44.7% rejected.
· 28.3% of respondents agreed on the establishment of a Palestinian State within the 1967 boarders with some land exchange as a final solution for the Palestinian problem; 66.7% rejected.
. 66.7% of respondents saw that the final solution of the Palestinian problem should be implemented on the basis of a permanent solution; 30.3% saw that it should be implemented on stages.
· 20.8% of respondents supported making Jerusalem as the capital of two states: Palestine and Israel; 77.4% rejected.
· Respondents saw Jerusalem important for them in the following aspects:
- Religious 97.0%
- National/ethnic 89.8%
- Political 88.9%
- Historical 94.6%
· 81.5% of respondents believed that the volume of struggle between Palestinians and settlers will escalate in the future stage.
· Respondents saw that settlements, in case they remain, will cause the following problems:
- Political 83.6%
- Economic 78.0%
- Religious 81.9%
- Ethnic 78.8%
· 36.7% of respondents believed that Hamas movement is the one which endeavors to conduct presidential, legislative or local council elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; 11.8% believed that it was Fateh which does so.
. 76.2% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 39.4% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 12.8% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
.76.1% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 40% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 13.3% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
· If PLC elections are to be conducted, 46% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 15.8% expected the winning of Hamas.
61.3%ofrespondents supported the decision of the Ministry of Local Government that declared all current local councils and municipalities as caretaker ones; 28.6% rejected.
· 79.1% of respondents supported conducting municipality and local council elections in July 2010; 15.2% rejected.
· 80.5% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming municipality and local council elections. From among those who said they will participate, 31% said that they will give their votes to Fateh’s candidate, 10.9% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate and 11.5% said they will give their votes to the representative of the family or clan.
.39.4% of respondents supported strikes organized by the unions of school teachers, university teachers, employees in the health sector and others; 55.3% rejected these strikes.
. 63.6% of respondents saw that the government of Salam Fayyad is the most capable of managing the Palestinian internal affairs; 20.1% saw that the government of Ismail Haniyeh is the most capable.
.65.4% of respondents assessed the performance of the government of Salam Fayyad as “good”.
. 31.2% of respondents assessed the performance of the government of Ismail Haniyeh as “good”.
. 48.9% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
. 63% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
. 75.9% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.
. As for political affiliation respondents gave the following results:
People’s Party | 0.7% |
Democratic Front | 0.6% |
Islamic Jihad | 2.2% |
Fateh | 35.5% |
Hamas | 12.3% |
Fida | 0.1% |
Popular Front | 3.1% |
Palestinian National Initiative | 0.9% |
I am an independent nationalist | 5.0% |
I am an independent Islamist | 3.5% |
None of the above | 35.7% |
Others | 0.4% |
The General Results of the Poll
Prime Minister Salam Fayyad announced that the Palestinian Authority will declare in August 2011 the creation of the Palestinian State. Do you support or reject that?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
71.3 | 77.0 | ||
I reject | 24.6 | 20.0 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 4.0 | 3.0 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that the USA will succeed in exerting pressure on Israel to stop building settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank for a four-month period?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
21.3 | 20.4 | ||
No | 73.5 | 75.0 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 5.2 | 4.5 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
48.7 | 53.8 | ||
I reject | 47.3 | 43.3 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 4.0 | 2.9 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you support or reject conducting indirect talks between the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli Government?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
34.0 | 31.1 | ||
I reject | 60.8 | 64.7 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 5.2 | 4.2 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
The Palestinian Authority decided not to negotiate with the Israeli Government while the latter continues to build settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Do you support or reject the PA’s decision?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
78.6 | 80.1 | ||
I reject | 19.0 | 18.4 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 2.4 | 1.5 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you support or reject conducting talks between the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli Government in case Israel continues building settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
14.3 | 12.4 | ||
I reject | 83.0 | 85.5 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 2.8 | 2.1 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that the resolutions made by the Arab Summit relating to the Palestinian problem are satisfactory?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
8.3 | 6.3 | ||
No | 83.0 | 84.7 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 7.6 | 9.1 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you believe that the Arab countries will carry out the resolutions that the Arab Summit issued relating to the Palestinian issue and Jerusalem?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
11.6 | 9.1 | ||
No, they will not | 79.5 | 81.9 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 8.9 | 9.1 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
A group of Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip declared that they ceased firing rockets from the Gaza Strip. Do you support or reject their decision?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
56.1 | 59.3 | ||
I reject | 37.7 | 36.0 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 6.2 | 4.6 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that the position of Hamas regarding firing rockets from Gaza has becomecongruentwith that ofthe PalestinianAuthority?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
55.6 | 53.3 | ||
No | 33.5 | 35.9 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 10.9 | 10.8 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that a national reconciliation agreement can be reached between Fateh and Hamas in the near future?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
51.3 | 62.3 | ||
No | 42.5 | 33.1 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 6.2 | 4.6 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
If a reconciliation agreement is signed, who, in your opinion, benefits from signing the agreement?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
22.2 | 20.6 | ||
Hamas | 15.7 | 7.9 | |
Others | 48.4 | 61.4 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 13.7 | 10.1 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Are you optimistic or pessimistic towards singing the reconciliation agreement in the near future?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
50.6 | 59.1 | ||
I am pessimistic | 45.8 | 38.1 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 3.6 | 2.8 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that the sides of the Palestinian dialogue, particularly Fateh and Hamas, are genuinely concerned with ending the state of Palestinian division?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
44.7 | 51.7 | ||
No | 42.2 | 35.9 | |
I am not concerned | 9.6 | 8.9 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 3.5 | 3.5 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that failure to reach a national reconciliation is because some people seek to achieve---------------------?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
48.9 | 55.4 | ||
Party and factional interests | 42.6 | 36.9 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 8.5 | 7.7 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
What, in your opinion, delays the signing of the national reconciliation agreement?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
17.6 | 18.0 | ||
Regional pressures on some sides | 27.6 | 27.8 | |
Factional interests of Fateh and Hamas | 44.0 | 44.4 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 10.9 | 9.9 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that concluding the Shalit deal will speed up the process of national reconciliation?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
41.7 | 40.5 | ||
No | 51.0 | 52.4 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 7.3 | 7.1 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
In case a national reconciliation agreement is signed, do you think that the signing of the agreement will --------?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
32.7 | 29.2 | ||
Freeze and entangle the peace process | 12.3 | 13.6 | |
Have no effect | 48.7 | 52.3 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 6.2 | 5.0 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
In case the national reconciliation is achieved, how will that affect you in the following situations: (Please, arrange them on a 0-10 scale)
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
5.7509 | 4.05981 | ||
Social | 6.0029 | 5.1278 | |
Political | 5.9765 | 5.1765 | |
Psychological | 7.0507 | 6.6690 |
Do you accept the creation of a Palestinian state on the total area of the 1967 borders as a final solution for the Palestinian problem?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
51.7 | 59.2 | ||
No | 44.7 | 38.1 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 3.5 | 2.7 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you accept the creation of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders with some land exchange as a final solution for the Palestinian problem?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
28.3 | 29.2 | ||
No | 66.7 | 66.8 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 5.0 | 4.1 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
What form do you envision the final solution of the Palestinian problem will take?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
66.7 | 69.2 | ||
A piecemeal solution (on stages) | 30.3 | 28.5 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 2.9 | 2.3 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you support or reject making Jerusalem a capital for two states: Palestine and Israel?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
20.8 | 20.9 | ||
I reject | 77.4 | 77.9 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 1.8 | 1.2 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
From which aspects do you see Jerusalem important to you?
(Please, arrange them on a 0-10 scale)
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
9.7032 | 9.8618 | ||
National/ethnic | 8.9802 | 9.2590 | |
Political | 8.8942 | 9.1835 | |
Historical | 9.4548 | .97131 |
Do you think that the volume of struggle between settlers and Palestinians will escalate within the coming stage?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
81.5 | 86.3 | ||
No | 12.0 | 7.8 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 6.5 | 5.9 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
In case settlements remain in place within a final solution pact, do you think that they will cause political, economic, religious, and ethnic problems?
(Please, arrange them on a 0-10 scale)
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
8.3549 | 8.6295 | ||
Economic | 7.8038 | 7.8072 | |
Religious | 8.1852 | 8.2683 | |
Ethnic | 7.8824 | 7.9884 |
There are certain sides that seek to obstruct conducting presidential, legislative, and municipality elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. From your own point view which of the following sides does not want to conduct elections?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
11.8 | 9.2 | ||
Hamas | 36.7 | 29.3 | |
Other sides | 35.0 | 43.7 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 16.5 | 17.9 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
If presidential elections are held in the present time, to whom from among the following do you give your vote?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
An independent candidate | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.8 |
A candidate from the left | 2.9 | 1.6 | 5.2 |
A candidate from Hamas | 9.8 | 5.7 | 16.8 |
A candidate from Fateh | 30.1 | 29.2 | 31.6 |
A national independent candidate | 4.9 | 3.8 | 6.8 |
An Islamic independent candidate | 2.7 | 2.3 | 3.4 |
I will not participate in the elections | 23.8 | 27.3 | 17.8 |
I have not decided yet | 19.8 | 23.9 | 12.6 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
If new PLC elections are conducted, whom do you vote for?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
An independent ticket | 5.9 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
A ticket from the left | 2.6 | 1.7 | 4.2 |
A ticket from Hamas | 10.1 | 6.3 | 16.8 |
A ticket from Fateh | 30.4 | 29.4 | 32.2 |
A national independent ticket | 4.7 | 3.8 | 6.2 |
An Islamic independent ticket | 2.9 | 2.3 | 3.8 |
I will not participate in the elections | 23.9 | 26.8 | 18.8 |
I have not decided yet | 19.5 | 23.6 | 12.4 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
If new legislative elections were to be held today, which of the following would win?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Independent Islamists bloc | 4.0 | 2.9 | 5.8 |
Independent Nationalist bloc | 6.4 | 5.0 | 8.8 |
Fateh bloc | 46.0 | 50.9 | 37.6 |
Hamas bloc | 15.8 | 13.4 | 20.0 |
A bloc from leftist organizations | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
No opinion/I do not know | 26.2 | 26.6 | 25.6 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
The Ministry of Local Government declared the current municipalities and local councils caretaker ones until elections are held. Do you support or reject the declaration of the Ministry?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
61.3 | 70.2 | ||
I reject | 28.6 | 23.6 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 10.1 | 6.3 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you support or reject conducting municipality and local council elections in August 2010?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
79.1 | 87.3 | ||
I reject | 15.2 | 10.5 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 5.7 | 2.2 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
If municipality and local council elections were to be held, who do you vote for?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
A block that represents the family or clan | 9.3 | 12.0 | 4.6 |
An independent ticket | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
A ticket from the left | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.6 |
A ticket from Hamas | 8.7 | 4.3 | 16.4 |
A ticket from Fateh | 25.0 | 23.1 | 28.2 |
A national independent ticket | 5.1 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
An Islamic independent ticket | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
I will not participate in the elections | 19.5 | 18.9 | 20.4 |
I have not decided yet | 23.7 | 28.0 | 16.2 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you support or reject the strikes of the unions of school teachers, university teachers, the employees of the health sector ---etc?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
39.4 | 41.3 | ||
I reject | 55.3 | 56.1 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 5.3 | 2.6 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
As you know, there is a government in the West Bank led by Salam Fayyad and another government in the Gaza Strip led by Ismail Haniyeh. In your opinion which government is more capable of managing the internal Palestinian affairs?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
The government of Salam Fayyad | 63.6 | 73.6 | |
The Government of Ismail Haniyeh | 20.1 | 17.9 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 16.3 | 8.5 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
How do you assess the performance of the government of Salam Fayyad?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Good | 65.4 | 76.2 | |
Bad | 26.3 | 17.7 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 8.3 | 6.2 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
How do you assess the performance of the government of Ismail Haniyeh?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Good | 31.2 | 34.4 | |
Bad | 45.3 | 35.7 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 23.4 | 30.0 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Are you worried about your life under the present circumstances?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Yes | 48.9 | 48.1 | |
No | 49.4 | 51.1 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 1.7 | 0.8 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Are you pessimistic or optimistic towards the general Palestinian situation at this stage?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Optimistic | 34.2 | 38.4 | |
Pessimistic | 63.0 | 60.0 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 2.8 | 1.5 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Under the present circumstances, do you feel that you, your family and your properties are safe?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Yes | 23.1 | 25.4 | |
May be | 36.1 | 33.2 | |
No | 39.8 | 41.1 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Which of the following political affiliations do you support?
PARTY | Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip |
People’s Party | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
Democratic Front | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.0 |
Islamic Jihad | 2.2 | 1.3 | 3.8 |
Fateh | 35.5 | 35.2 | 36.0 |
Hamas | 12.3 | 9.1 | 17.8 |
Fida | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
Popular Front | 3.1 | 2.1 | 4.8 |
Palestinian National Initiative | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
I am an independent nationalist | 5.0 | 5.5 | 4.2 |
I am an independent Islamist | 3.5 | 3.3 | 4.0 |
None of the above | 35.7 | 41.5 | 25.8 |
Others | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
