Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No. 39 Oct. 22-24th
25 October 2009
Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll...
No. 39
22- 24 October 2009
Background
In view of deferring action on the report compiled by Richard Goldstone regarding the war on the Gaza Strip, resubmitting it to the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva and endorsing it, the Palestinian scene witnessed different public and official reactions towards the PA’s handling of the report. The UN Human Rights Council Report was the main factor in escalating the war of words between the poles of the Palestinian political system.
Time again and after raising the expectations of the Palestinian public to an imminent national reconciliation agreement following several rounds of talks, a national reconciliation agreement has not been signed by some Palestinian factions including Hamas; most Palestinian factions who are members of the PLO, signed it.
On another scale, some Palestinian resources revealed President Mahmoud Abbas’s intention to issue a presidential decree in which he will assign a date for Palestinian Presidential and Legislative elections as it is a constitutional demand whether a reconciliation is achieved or not.
The Results
Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 39 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 22-24 October 2009. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.
Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 39 undertakes the national reconciliation, the Goldstone Report to the UN Human Rights Council, the performance of the governments of Salam Fayyad and Ismail Haniyeh in addition to political affiliations and other issues.
The sample included 1360 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 860 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 3.7% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.
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The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not, by any means, represent the opinion of An-Najah National University.
The General Results:
- 40.8% of respondents saw that the one responsible for deferring the signing of a reconciliation agreement is Hamas; 22.4% saw that it is Fateh.
- 65.4% of respondents believed that some Arab countries are endeavoring to drive away the possibility of reaching a Palestinian reconciliation agreement.
- 39.6% of respondents believed that Hamas is the Palestinian party that reaps an advantage of not signing a reconciliation agreement; 24.7% believed that it is Fateh who reaps the advantage.
- 21.7% of respondents believed that Fateh is not really concerned with signing the Palestinian reconciliation agreement; 46% said it is Hamas who is not concerned.
- 37.4% of respondents said that they are not optimistic of signing a reconciliation agreement in the near future.
- 46.8% of respondents believed that the sides of the Palestinian dialogue, particularly Fateh and Hamas, are not concerned with ending the Palestinian split.
- 49% of respondents expected that internal Palestinian confrontations may erupt in the West Bank in case a Palestinian reconciliation agreement is not reached.
- 59.1% of respondents expected that internal Palestinian confrontations may erupt in the Gaza Strip in case a Palestinian reconciliation agreement is not reached.
- 60.8% of respondents said that signing a reconciliation agreement will affect them positively; 10.8% said it will affect them negatively.
- 50.4% of respondents believed that the reason behind not reaching a Palestinian reconciliation agreement is that some people seek to achieve personal interests; 43.8% believed that the reason has to do with seeking factional interests.
- 25.3% of respondents believed that the delay in the signing of the Palestinian reconciliation agreement is because of pressures exerted by some Arab sides; 32.1% believed that it is because of some regional pressures, and 35.8% believed that it is because of the factional interests of Fateh and Hamas.
- 55.6% of respondents supported the implementation of the recommendations of the Goldstone Report despite the fact that it charges both Israel and Hamas with war crimes
- 31.3% of respondents said that the Palestinian Authority committed a mistake and corrected it by resubmitting the Goldstone Report to the UN Human Rights Council; 29.5% said that resubmitting the Report was a tactic to contain the anger of the Palestinian public, 21.2% said that the PA wanted to disarm Hamas of all possible pretexts that would justify the refusal of singing the reconciliation agreement
- 40.7% of respondents believed that the Palestinian people are the main beneficiaries of resubmitting the Goldstone Report to the UN Human Rights Council; 31.3% believed that the main beneficiary is the PA, and 14.1% believed that the main beneficiary is the Hamas Government in Gaza.
- 52.7% of respondents believed that the Goldstone Report was employed to serve factional interests; 28.3% believed the contrary.
- 66.2% of respondents supported the issuance of a presidential decree by President Mahmoud Abbas confirming the constitutional date of the elections on 26/10/2010
- 29.6% of respondents believed that issuing a decree confirming the constitutional date of the elections would deepen the state of Palestinian division; 27.6% believed that a decree would be an exit for all from the state of division, and 37.6% believed that confirming the elections date is a constitutional right regardless of its consequences.
- 75.7% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 40% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 16% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
- 75.8% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 42.9% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 16.8% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
- If PLC elections are to be conducted, 48.8% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 16.9% expected the winning of Hamas.
- 69.1% of respondents expected some confrontations between Palestinians and settlers in case Israel evacuates some of the random settlement sites in the West Bank.
- 60.1% of respondents saw that the government of Salam Fayyad is the most capable of managing the Palestinian internal affairs; 20.5% saw that the government of Ismail Haniyeh is the most capable.
- 61.2% of respondents assessed the performance of the government of Salam Fayyad as “good”
- 33.9% of respondents assessed the performance of the government of Ismail Haniyeh as “good”
- 53.5% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
- 66.6% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
- 76.8% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.
- As for political affiliation respondents gave the following results:
People’s Party | 0.7% |
Democratic Front | %1.0 |
Islamic Jihad | 1.6% |
Fateh | 37.6% |
Hamas | 14.6% |
Fida | 0.2% |
Popular Front | 2.7% |
Palestinian National Initiative | 1.0% |
I am an independent nationalist | 6.6% |
I am an independent Islamist | 2.3% |
None of the above | 30.6% |
Others | 1.0% |
The General Results of the Poll
It has become clear that signing the Palestinian reconciliation agreement will not take place in the near future. In your opinion, who is responsible for delaying the signing of the reconciliation agreement?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Fateh | 22.4 | 22.9 | 21.4 |
Hamas | 40.8 | 33.6 | 53.2 |
Others | 25.5 | 29.7 | 18.4 |
No opinion/I do not know | 11.3 | 13.8 | 7.0 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that some Arab countries seek to hinder the signing of the Palestinian reconciliation agreement?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Yes | 65.4 | 68.3 | 60.6 |
No | 27.1 | 25.9 | 29.2 |
No opinion/I do not know | 7.4 | 5.8 | 10.2 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Which Palestinian party reaps the benefit of not signing a reconciliation agreement?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Fateh | 24.7 | 25.9 | 22.6 |
Hamas | 39.6 | 30.9 | 54.4 |
Others | 26.3 | 31.6 | 17.0 |
No opinion/I do not know | 9.5 | 11.5 | 6.0 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
There are those who say that Fateh is not concerned with signing a reconciliation agreement and there are others who say that it is Hamas who is not concerned. In your opinion, which party is not concerned?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Fateh | 21.7 | 21.5 | 22.0 |
Hamas | 46.0 | 40.0 | 56.4 |
Others | 22.6 | 27.6 | 14.2 |
No opinion/I do not know | 9.6 | 10.9 | 7.4 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Are you optimistic or pessimistic towards singing the reconciliation agreement in the near future?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
I am optimistic | 37.4 | 43.6 | 26.6 |
I am pessimistic | 58.3 | 53.3 | 67.0 |
No opinion/I do not know | 4.3 | 3.1 | 6.4 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that the sides of the Palestinian dialogue, particularly Fateh and Hamas, are genuinely concerned with ending the state of Palestinian division?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Yes | 39.7 | 43.7 | 32.8 |
No | 46.8 | 45.7 | 48.6 |
I am not concerned | 8.2 | 7.2 | 9.8 |
No opinion/I do not know | 5.4 | 3.4 | 8.8 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
In case a reconciliation agreement is not reached, do you expect that some internal Palestinian confrontations will occur in the West Bank within the coming months?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Yes | 49.0 | 50.2 | 46.8 |
No | 45.3 | 46.3 | 43.6 |
No opinion/I do not know | 5.7 | 3.5 | 9.6 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
In case a reconciliation agreement is not reached, do you expect that some internal Palestinian confrontations will occur in the Gaza Strip within the coming months?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Yes | 59.1 | 63.7 | 51.2 |
No | 34.3 | 29.8 | 42.0 |
No opinion/I do not know | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.8 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
If the Palestinian reconciliation agreement is signed successfully. Generally, how would that success influence you personally?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Positively | 60.8 | 59.2 | 63.6 |
Negatively | 10.8 | 6.9 | 17.6 |
It will not have any effect | 26.7 | 33.1 | 15.6 |
No opinion/I do not know | 1.7 | 0.8 | 3.2 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that failure to reach a national reconciliation is because some people seek to achieve---------------------?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Personal interests | 50.4 | 53.1 | 45.8 |
Party and factional interests | 43.8 | 41.9 | 47.0 |
No opinion/I do not know | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
What, in your opinion, delays the signing of the national reconciliation agreement?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Arab pressures on some sides | 25.3 | 24.8 | 26.2 |
Regional pressures on some sides | 32.1 | 31.3 | 33.4 |
Factional interests of Fateh and Hamas | 35.8 | 37.8 | 32.4 |
No opinion/I do not know | 6.8 | 6.2 | 8.0 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
The Goldstone Report charges both Israel and Hamas with committing war crimes during the war on Gaza. The Report arrives at recommendations that condemn both Israel and Hamas. Are you in favor of implementing the recommendations of the Goldstone Report?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Yes | 55.6 | 56.2 | 54.6 |
No | 32.6 | 32.7 | 32.6 |
No opinion/I do not know | 11.8 | 11.2 | 12.8 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
What does resubmitting the Goldstone Report to the UN Human Rights Council indicate?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
The PA made a mistake and corrected it | 31.3 | 31.7 | 30.6 |
Resubmitting the Report is a tactic by which the PA wanted to contain the anger of the Palestinian public | 29.5 | 27.4 | 33.0 |
The PA disarmed Hamas of a pretext that it would use to avoid signing the reconciliation agreement | 21.2 | 21.2 | 21.2 |
No opinion/I do not know | 18.0 | 19.7 | 15.2 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Now that the uproar relating to the Goldstone Report cooled down, who in your opinion reaps the advantage of resubmitting the report to the UN Human Rights Council?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
The Palestinian Authority | 31.3 | 29.7 | 34.2 |
The Government of Hamas in Gaza | 14.1 | 11.2 | 19.2 |
The Palestinian people | 40.7 | 44.1 | 35.0 |
No opinion/I do not know | 13.8 | 15.1 | 11.6 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that the Goldstone Report has been employed to serve party and factional interests?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Yes | 52.7 | 54.3 | 50.0 |
No | 28.3 | 27.4 | 29.8 |
No opinion/I do not know | 19.0 | 18.3 | 20.2 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you support or reject issuing a decree by the President confirming the constitutional date of the elections on 26/10/2010 regardless of whether the reconciliation agreement is signed or not.
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
I support | 66.2 | 67.6 | 63.8 |
I reject | 22.3 | 21.6 | 23.4 |
I am not concerned | 10.1 | 9.8 | 10.6 |
No opinion/I do not know | 1.5 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
What consequences will issuing a decree to confirm the constitutional date of the elections have?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
It will deepen the state of division | 29.6 | 29.8 | 29.4 |
It will offer an exit for all out of the state of division | 27.8 | 27.9 | 27.6 |
It is a constitutional right regardless of its results | 37.6 | 36.9 | 38.8 |
No opinion/I do not know | 5.0 | 5.5 | 4.2 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
If presidential elections are held in the present time, to whom from among the following do you give your vote?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
An independent candidate | 7.6 | 7.4 | 7.8 |
A candidate from the left | 3.3 | 2.6 | 4.6 |
A candidate from Hamas | 12.1 | 8.7 | 18.0 |
A candidate from Fateh | 30.3 | 26.2 | 37.4 |
A national independent candidate | 4.7 | 5.2 | 3.8 |
An Islamic independent candidate | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
I will not participate in the elections | 24.3 | 28.0 | 17.8 |
I have not decided yet | 15.4 | 19.5 | 8.4 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
If new PLC elections are conducted, whom do you vote for?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
An independent ticket | 5.9 | 6.5 | 4.8 |
A ticket from the left | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.8 |
A ticket from Hamas | 12.7 | 9.5 | 18.2 |
A ticket from Fateh | 32.5 | 27.6 | 41.0 |
A national independent ticket | 4.9 | 5.3 | 4.0 |
An Islamic independent ticket | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
I will not participate in the elections | 24.2 | 27.2 | 19.0 |
I have not decided yet | 14.6 | 18.6 | 7.6 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
If new legislative elections were to be held today, which of the following would win?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Independent Islamists bloc | 3.7 | 3.3 | 4.4 |
Independent Nationalist bloc | 7.4 | 7.8 | 6.8 |
Fateh bloc | 48.8 | 49.5 | 47.4 |
Hamasbloc | 16.9 | 14.1 | 21.8 |
A bloc from leftist organizations | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
No opinion/I do not know | 22.0 | 24.3 | 18.0 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
In case Israel evacuates some of the random settlement sites in the West Bank, do you expect confrontations between Palestinians and the settlers?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Yes | 69.1 | 68.3 | 70.6 |
No | 24.7 | 27.0 | 20.8 |
No opinion/I do not know | 6.2 | 4.8 | 8.6 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
As you know, there is a government in the West Bank led by Salam Fayyad and another government in the Gaza Strip led by Ismail Haniyeh. In your opinion which government is more capable of managing the internal Palestinian affairs?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
The government of Salam Fayyad | 60.1 | 62.0 | 57.0 |
The Government of Ismail Haniyeh | 20.5 | 18.8 | 23.4 |
No opinion/I do not know | 19.3 | 19.2 | 19.6 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
How do you assess the performance of the government of Salam Fayyad?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Good | 61.2 | 63.5 | 57.2 |
Bad | 28.8 | 26.3 | 33.0 |
No opinion/I do not know | 10.1 | 10.2 | 9.8 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
How do you assess the performance of the government of Ismail Haniyeh?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Good | 33.9 | 35.6 | 31.0 |
Bad | 47.8 | 42.3 | 57.2 |
No opinion/I do not know | 18.3 | 22.1 | 11.8 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Are you worried about your life under the present circumstances?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Yes | 53.3 | 48.6 | 62.0 |
No | 45.5 | 50.9 | 36.2 |
No opinion/I do not know | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Are you pessimistic or optimistic towards the general Palestinian situation at this stage?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Optimistic | 31.5 | 34.7 | 26.2 |
Pessimistic | 66.6 | 63.5 | 72.0 |
No opinion/I do not know | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Under the present circumstances, do you feel that you, your family and your properties are safe?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Yes | 22.4 | 23.0 | 21.2 |
May be | 38.4 | 38.7 | 37.8 |
No | 38.4 | 37.8 | 39.4 |
No opinion/I do not know | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.6 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Which of the following political affiliations do you support?
PARTY | Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip |
People’s Party | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
Democratic Front | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
Islamic Jihad | 1.6 | 0.9 | 2.8 |
Fateh | 37.6 | 34.5 | 42.8 |
Hamas | 14.6 | 12.1 | 18.8 |
Fida | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
Popular Front | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 |
Palestinian National Initiative | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
I am an independent nationalist | 6.6 | 6.9 | 6.2 |
I am an independent Islamist | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
None of the above | 30.6 | 35.8 | 21.6 |
Others | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
