An-Najah National University

Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies

Tel: (972) (9) 2345113    Fax: (972)(9) 2345982 

Nablus, Palestine: P.O.Box 7, 707

Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll

No. 38

16-18 July 2009

Background

Despite the rounds of dialogue held in Cairo, the Palestinian split still persists. The new reality that emerged in the last two rounds is that the dialogue is transformed into a bilateral debate between Fateh and Hamas irritating the other Palestinian factions and independent personalities who participated in the previous dialogues and issued separate statements explaining their opinions and visions.

On the other side of the scene, the truce on the Gaza Strip borders is still holding and Hamas is preserving it. In the West Bank, negotiations between Palestinians and the Israelis came to a halt after the formation of the new Israeli government. More than one Palestinian official declared that negotiation with Israel will not resume unless Israel declares a complete cessation of all its settlement activities.

On the Palestinian side, Hamas still accuses the Palestinian government of arresting its supporters and advocates; Fateh also accuses the resigned government in the Gaza Strip of hunting down its supporters in the Strip.

The Results

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 38 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 16-18 July 2009. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 38 undertakes the new political realities such as the Cairo dialogue, the national reconciliation, the performance of the governments of Salam Fayyad and Ismail Haniyeh in addition to political affiliations and other issues.

The sample included 1360 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 860 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 3.6% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

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The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not, by any means, represent the opinion of An-Najah National University.

The General Results:

• 80% of respondents supported the formation of a national unity government to end the political division and to prepare for legislative and presidential elections.
• 52.5% of respondents supported the formation of a committee substituting a national unity government and representing all Palestinian factions. Such committee will be entrusted with coordination between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; 37.1rejected.
• 65.3% of respondents rejected limiting the Cairo dialogue to the representatives of Fateh and Hamas; 25.3% supported.
• 73.8% of respondents supported the participation of national  independent  Palestinian personalities in the Cairo dialogue.
• 63.9% of respondents saw that the participation of national independent personalities in the Cairo dialogue will positively influence the dialogue; 18.8% saw that it will have a negative influence.
• 31.4% of respondents believed that the coming round of dialogue at the end of July will lead to the signing of a reconciliation agreement; 53% believed the contrary
• 39.7% of respondents believed that the parties involved in the dialogue, particularly Fateh and Hamas, are concerned with putting an end to the division; 49% believed the contrary.
• 35.7% of respondents believed that there are positive signs that the Cairo dialogue will succeed.
• 40.1% of respondents believed that the parties of the dialogue in Cairo  have the intention to make the dialogue succeed; 50.3% believed the contrary.
• 40% of respondents believed that the discoursing parties in Cairo have a genuine intention to end the division
• 65.6% of respondents said that the success of the Cairo dialogue will have a positive influence on them personally; 6% said it will have a negative influence on them.
• 38.8% of respondents believed that the discoursing parties in Cairo aim at serving the interests of their parties and movements, 27.6% believed that they aim at serving their personal interests, and 27.7 believed that they aim at serving the interests of the Palestinian people.
• 74.6% of respondents supported the participation of a group of independent Palestinian personalities in the Cairo dialogue.
• 55.9% of respondents assessed the participation of a group of independent Palestinian personalities in the Cairo dialogue as “good”; 24.9% assessed it as “bad”.
• 28.9% of respondents saw that the participation of a group of independent Palestinian personalities in the Cairo dialogue serves the personal interests of these personalities, 6.3% saw that it serves the interests of Fateh movement, 1.5% saw that it serves the interest of Hamas movement, and 52.1% saw that it serves the general Palestinian cause.
• 78.7% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 34% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 15.1% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
• 79% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 36.7% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 15.8% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
• If PLC elections are to be conducted, 39.3% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 17.9% expected the winning of Hamas.
• 78.7% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 67.5% said they will vote for Mahmoud Abbas and 21.4% said they will vote for Ismail Haniyeh. 
• 52.6% of respondents said that Mahmoud Abbas is the one most capable of managing the Palestinian-Israeli conflict; 22.1% said that Ismail Haniyeh is the one. 
• 44.8% of respondents saw that the government of Salam Fayyad is the most capable of managing the Palestinian internal affairs; 24% saw that the government of Ismail Haniyeh is the most capable.
• 48.8% of respondents assessed the performance of the government of Salam Fayyad as “good”
• 32.4% of respondents assessed the performance of the government of Ismail Haniyeh as “good”
• 64.6% of respondents believed that Hamas movement assaults Fateh activists in the Gaza Strip.
• 64.2% of respondents believed that the Palestinian Authority arrests Hamas activists in the West Bank.
• 52.4% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
• 60.7% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage. 
• 60.3% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.

• As for political affiliation respondents gave the following results:

The General Results of the Poll

Do you support or reject the formation of a unity government that will work on ending the sate of division and prepare for the presidential and legislative elections?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	80.0	83.7	73.6
I reject	11.8	8.5	17.4
I am not concerned	6.6	6.6	6.6
No opinion/I do not know	1.6	1.2	2.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

In the Cairo dialogue, the formation of a committee that would include members who represent factions and independent personalities and that would replace a unity government and take charge of coordination between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip was suggested. Do you support or reject this suggestion?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	52.5	54.0	50.0
I reject	37.1	36.0	38.8
I am not concerned	7.0	6.7	7.4
No opinion/I do not know	3.5	3.3	3.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

The recent rounds of the Cairo dialogue were limited to representatives of Fateh and Hamas; other Palestinian factions and independent personalities were not invited. Do you support or reject limiting the participation in the Cairo dialogues to the representatives of Fateh and Hamas?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	25.3	20.8	33.0
I reject	65.3	72.1	53.6
I am not concerned	6.9	5.6	9.2
No opinion/I do not know	2.5	1.5	4.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject the participation of national  independent  Palestinian in the Cairo dialogue?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	73.8	78.5	65.6
I reject	17.9	13.5	25.6
I am not concerned	6.5	6.2	7.2
No opinion/I do not know	1.8	1.9	1.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do think that the participation of national independent personalities in the Cairo dialogue will influence the proceedings of the dialogue positively or negatively?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
It will have a negative effect	18.8	16.4	22.8
It will have a positive effect	63.9	67.6	57.6
I am not concerned	7.5	6.5	9.2
No opinion/I do not know	9.9	9.5	10.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that a reconciliation agreement will be signed in the coming round of dialogue at the end of July?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	31.4	33.5	27.8
No	53.0	63.1	52.8
I am not concerned	4.0	4.0	4.0
No opinion/I do not know	11.6	9.4	15.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the parties of the dialogue, particularly Fateh and Hamas, are concerned with ending the state of division?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	39.7	42.2	35.4
No	49.0	48.4	50.0
I am not concerned	4.6	4.1	5.4
No opinion/I do not know	6.8	5.3	9.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that there are positive signs that the Cairo dialogue will succeed?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	35.7	37.9	31.8
No	55.4	55.0	56.2
No opinion/I do not know	8.9	7.1	12.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the parties of the dialogue in Cairo have the intention to make the dialogue succeed?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	40.1	43.5	34.2
No	50.3	49.4	51.8
No opinion/I do not know	9.6	7.1	14.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the parties of the dialogue in Cairo have the genuine intention to end the Palestinian division?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	40.0	43.0	34.8
No	49.9	50.1	49.4
No opinion/I do not know	10.1	6.9	15.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

If the Cairo dialogue succeeds, how does its success generally affect you personally?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Positively	65.6	61.5	72.6
Negatively	6.0	4.7	8.4
It will not have any effect	26.8	32.4	17.0
No opinion/I do not know	1.6	1.4	2.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Which of the following objectives do you think the parties of the Cairo dialogue aim at?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Personal interests	27.6	29.4	24.6
The interests of their movements and parties	38.8	36.7	42.4
The interest of the Palestinian people	27.7	29.1	25.4
No opinion/I do not know	5.8	4.8	7.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

A group of Palestinian national independent personalities participated in the Cairo dialogue. Do you support or reject such participation?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	74.6	80.2	64.8
I reject	19.2	15.0	26.4
No opinion/I do not know	6.3	4.8	8.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

How do you assess the participation of the Palestinian independent personalities in the Cairo dialogue?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Good	55.9	61.7	45.8
Bad	24.9	19.0	35.0
No opinion/I do not know	19.3	19.3	19.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

In your opinion, whose interest does the participation of Palestinian independent personalities in the Cairo dialogue serve?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
The personal interests of these personalities	28.9	26.7	32.6
The interests of Fateh	6.3	4.7	9.0
The interests of Hamas	1.5	0.7	3.0
The interests of the general Palestinian cause	52.1	59.4	39.6
No opinion/I do not know	11.2	8.5	15.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

If presidential elections are held in the present time, to whom from among the following do you give your vote?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
An independent candidate	7.5	6.9	8.6
A candidate from the left	3.1	2.2	4.6
A candidate from Hamas	11.8	8.6	17.4
A candidate from Fateh	26.8	24.5	30.6
A national independent candidate	7.1	8.0	5.4
An Islamic independent candidate	5.2	5.3	5.0
I will not participate in the elections	21.3	23.0	18.4
I have not decided yet	17.2	21.4	10.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 If new PLC elections are conducted, whom do you vote for?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
An independent ticket	6.0	5.6	6.6
A ticket from the left	3.5	2.6	5.2
A ticket from Hamas	12.5	9.3	18.0
A ticket from Fateh	29.0	27.7	31.2
A national independent ticket	6.8	7.9	5.0
An Islamic independent ticket	5.2	4.8	6.0
I will not participate in the elections	21.0	22.2	18.8
I have not decided yet	16.0	20.0	9.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

If new legislative elections were to be held today, which of the following would win?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Independent Islamists bloc	6.3	5.2	8.0
Independent Nationalist bloc	9.3	9.7	8.6
Fateh bloc	39.3	42.0	34.6
Hamas bloc	17.9	16.5	20.4
A bloc from leftist organizations	2.0	1.7	2.4
No opinion/I do not know	25.3	24.9	26.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 In case presidential elections are held, to whom do you give your vote?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Mahmoud Abbas	53.1	53.3	52.8
Ismail Haniyeh	16.8	14.5	20.8
Others	8.8	9.2	8.0
I will not participate in the elections	21.3	23.0	18.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

In your opinion, who is the most capable of managing the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and serving the highest national interest?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Mahmoud Abbas	52.6	52.9	52.2
Ismail Haniyeh	22.1	22.1	22.0
No opinion/I do not know	25.3	25.0	25.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

As you know, there is a government in the West Bank led by Salam Fayyad and another government in the Gaza Strip led by Ismail Haniyeh. In your opinion which government is more capable of managing the internal Palestinian affairs?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
The government of Salam Fayyad	44.8	45.3	43.8
The Government of Ismail Haniyeh	24.0	24.4	23.4
No opinion/I do not know	31.2	30.2	32.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

How do you assess the performance of the government of Salam Fayyad?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Good	48.8	52.6	42.4
Bad	38.7	34.1	46.6
No opinion/I do not know	12.5	13.4	11.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

How do you assess the performance of the government of Ismail Haniyeh?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Good	32.4	35.7	26.6
Bad	48.5	41.3	60.8
No opinion/I do not know	19.2	23.0	12.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

There are those who say that Hamas is belligerent towards Fateh activists in the Gaza Strip. Do you support or reject this allegation?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	64.6	62.2	68.6
No	21.4	22.4	19.6
No opinion/I do not know	14.0	15.3	11.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

There are those who say that the Palestinian Authority arrests Hamas activists in the West Bank. Do you support or reject this allegation?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	64.2	68.4	57.0
No	21.5	17.4	28.4
No opinion/I do not know	14.3	14.2	14.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Are you worried about your life under the present circumstances?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	52.4	48.4	59.2
No	46.5	50.9	38.8
No opinion/I do not know	1.2	0.7	2.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Are you pessimistic or optimistic towards the general Palestinian situation at this stage?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Optimistic	37.2	40.2	32.0
Pessimistic	60.7	58.3	64.8
No opinion/I do not know	2.1	1.5	3.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Under the present circumstances, do you feel that you, your family and your properties are safe?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	22.9	24.5	20.2
May be	37.4	35.7	40.2
No	39.0	39.4	38.2
No opinion/I do not know	0.7	0.3	1.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Which of the following political affiliations do you support?