Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll (34)
Background
Despite the vigorous diplomatic activities that the area is witnessing, the Palestinian- Israeli negotiations are stand still; no progress has been achieved. President Bush's vision of a Palestinian state does not seem to be able to see the light during the current year according to what many Palestinian officials have declared.
On another dimension, Hamas offered a truce (hudna) with Israel, through an Egyptian mediation, that would begin in the Gaza Strip and extend to the West Bank at a later stage. Later a group of Palestinian factions agreed to join Hamas in its hudna proposal; Israel, however, does not seem to give any consideration to such proposal. In the Gaza Strip the living and human conditions continue to deteriorate as the blockade continues and as Israel ceases completely to provide the Strip with fuel. The occupation continues shelling, killing and the ensuing destruction threatens of human disaster according to declarations made by several local and international institutions.
As for the relationship between Fateh and Hamas the rift is still too deep; after the signing of the Sana'a Agreement for reconciliation, not a single item of the agreement was implemented and each party put the blame of not honoring the agreement on the other.
The Results
Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No. 34 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 15-17 May 2008. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.
Palestinian public opinion poll no. 34 undertakes the current political realities especially the incidents that took place in Gaza, the siege imposed on the Gaza Strip by Israel, in addition to political affiliations.
The sample included 1360 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 800 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 5.8% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.
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The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not, by any means, represent the opinion of An-Najah National University.
The General Results:
- 56.5% of respondents supported continuing negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and Israel; 40.1% rejected.
- 71.5% of respondents supported signing a hudna agreement with Israel that begins in the Gaza Strip and extends to the West Bank.
- 72.2% of respondents supported the position of a group of Palestinian factions that calls for signing a hudna agreement with Israel that begins in the Gaza Strip and extends to the West Bank
- 10.4% of respondents believed that Israel will accept the hudna agreement proposed by Hamas and a group of Palestinian factions.
- 13.2% of respondents believed that George Bush's imminent visit to the area will push the peace process between Israel and the Palestinian Authority ahead.
- 24.4% of respondents believed that Hamas is the Palestinian responsible party for the internal Palestinian split; 14% believed that Fateh is the responsible party.
- 24.6% of respondents believed that Hamas is the responsible party for the failure to implement Sana'a Agreement between Fateh and Hamas; 15.4% believed that Fateh is the responsible party.
- 39.5% of respondents supported the creation of two states on the land of historic Palestine (a Palestinian state and Israel).
- 68.5% of respondents supported the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied Palestinian territories.
- 36.3% of respondents believed that the negotiations that President Mahmoud Abbas conducts will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories.
- 41.2% of respondents believed that Palestinian resistance in its present shape will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories.
- 88.2% of respondents supported restoring dialogue between the Palestinian Presidency in Ramallah and the dissolved government in the Gaza Strip.
- 48.8% of respondents believed that Fateh movement is seriously interested in a dialogue with Hamas movement.
- 40.1% of respondents believed that Hamas movement is seriously interested in a dialogue with Fateh movement.
- 21.1% of respondents believed that the current Palestinian leaderships with its different denominations are capable of saving the Palestinian people from the miserable political reality they live.
- 36.7% of respondents believed that there is an on-going communication between Hamas movement and the United States.
- 49.5% of respondents believed that there is an on-going communication between Hamas movement and the European Union.
- 51.3% of respondents believed that the opening of Rafah Crossing for three days this week meant only to defuse the crisis in the Gaza Strip
- 44.5% of respondents believed that the opening of Rafah Crossing is considered the initial step toward ending the crises in the Gaza Strip.
- 29.9% of respondents believed that Hamas was able to convince the Egyptians that it is capable of running Rafah Crossing by itself solely.
- 52.3% of respondents believed that the corruption charges against the Israeli Prime Minister Olmert will influence the Palestinian Israeli negotiation track.
- 59.4% of respondents assessed the performance of the Palestinian Presidency at the present time as "good".
- Regardless of legitimacy or illegitimacy, 49.3% of respondent supported the general policy of the care-taker government of Salam Fayyad.
- Regardless of legitimacy or illegitimacy, 32.1% of respondents supported the general policy of the dissolved government of Ismael Haniyeh.
- 49.4% of respondents assessed the performance of the care-taker government of Salam Fayyad as "good".
- 33.9% of respondents assessed the performance of the dissolved government of Ismael Haniyeh as "good".
- 58.2% of respondents supported dissolving the current PLC.
- 67.9% of respondents supported conducting early Palestinian Presidential elections.
- 79.6% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 40.9% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 18.8% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
- 80.7% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 40.6% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 20% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
- If PLC elections are to be conducted, 45.4% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 20.5% expected the winning of Hamas.
- 54.5% of respondents expected the success of the security campaign that the Palestinian Authority began in Jenin to restore order and law to the city.
- 49.6% of respondents believed that the security campaign that the Palestinian Authority began in Nablus to restore order and law to the city succeeded.
- 59.9% of respondents believed that the Palestinian security forces are capable of imposing order and the rule of law on the areas in which they were redeployed.
- 65.5% of respondents supported the notion that Palestinian arms must only be in the hands of the Palestinian security apparatuses.
- If they were employees, 40.2% of respondents accepted early retirement if it were to be offered to them.
- 58.7% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
- 62.8% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
- 82.3% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.
- As for political affiliation respondents gave the following results:
People’s Party | 0.5% |
Democratic Front | 0.9% |
Islamic Jihad | 2.6% |
Fateh | 40.1% |
Hamas | 17.5% |
Fida | 0.1% |
Popular Front | 3.5% |
Palestinian National Initiative | 0.7% |
I am an independent nationalist | 5.4% |
I am an independent Islamist | 3.2% |
None of the above | 24.4% |
Others | 1.0% |
The General Results of the Poll
In view of the last Israeli operations against the Gaza Strip, do you support or reject resuming political negotiations between the Palestinian authority and Israel?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
I strongly support | 17.4 | 9.3 | |
I support | 39.1 | 41.7 | |
I reject | 24.2 | 30.8 | |
I strongly reject | 15.9 | 15.0 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 3.4 | 3.1 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you support or reject a truce (hudna) that starts in the Gaza Strip and extends to the West Bank?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
I strongly support | 11.6 | 36.6 | |
I support | 57.4 | 39.2 | |
I reject | 20.5 | 7.6 | |
I strongly reject | 8.1 | 14.4 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 2.3 | 2.2 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
A group of Palestinian factions accepted a hudna with Israel that begins in the Gaza Strip and extends to the west Bank. Do you support or reject the position of these factions?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
I strongly support | 12.4 | 35.2 | |
I support | 58.4 | 39.4 | |
I reject | 20.2 | 11.6 | |
I strongly reject | 6.4 | 11.2 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 2.6 | 2.6 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that Israel will accept the hudna that Hamas and a group of Palestinian factions offered?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
10.4 | 8.0 | ||
34.9 | 26.6 | ||
No | 50.5 | 61.2 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 4.3 | 4.2 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that the imminent visit of President Bush to the area will lead to pushing the peace process between Israel and the Palestinian Authority ahead?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
13.2 | 7.2 | ||
No | 79.3 | 88.8 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 7.5 | 4.0 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Who, in your opinion, is responsible for the on-going internal Palestinian split?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
14.0 | 12.3 | ||
24.4 | 15.6 | ||
47.0 | 55.5 | ||
Others (specify) | 6.8 | 8.3 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 7.7 | 8.4 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Who, in your opinion, is responsible for the failure to implement the Sana'a Agreement between Fateh and Hamas?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
15.4 | 13.3 | ||
24.6 | 15.5 | ||
42.6 | 49.9 | ||
Others (specify) | 4.6 | 5.1 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 12.9 | 16.3 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you support or reject the creation of two states on the historic land of Palestine (a Palestinian state and Israel)?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
39.5 | 40.5 | ||
I reject | 57.6 | 58.4 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 2.9 | 1.2 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you support or reject the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
68.5 | 68.1 | ||
I reject | 28.2 | 30.3 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 3.3 | 1.5 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that the negotiations that President Mahmoud Abbas is conducting will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
36.3 | 30.0 | ||
No | 54.1 | 62.2 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 9.6 | 7.8 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that the Palestinian resistance in its present form will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
41.2 | 40.8 | ||
No | 50.7 | 53.0 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 8.1 | 6.2 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you support or reject resorting to dialogue between the Palestinian Presidency in Ramallah and the dissolved government in the Gaza Strip?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
I strongly support | 39.4 | 48.4 | |
I support | 51.3 | 35.4 | |
I reject | 6.5 | 8.2 | |
I strongly reject | 1.2 | 6.8 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 1.6 | 1.2 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that Fateh is seriously interested in a dialogue with Hamas?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
48.8 | 43.7 | ||
No | 41.1 | 45.8 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 10.1 | 10.5 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that Hamas is seriously interested in a dialogue with Fateh?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
40.1 | 43.4 | ||
No | 49.9 | 49.4 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 10.1 | 10.2 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
In general, do you think that the current Palestinian leaderships with their different denominations are really capable of saving the Palestinian people from the miserable political situation the live?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
21.1 | 18.8 | ||
No | 39.3 | 31.0 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 39.6 | 50.1 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that there is an on-going communication between Hamas and the United States?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
36.7 | 32.0 | ||
No | 41.9 | 44.5 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 21.4 | 23.5 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that there is an on-going communication between Hamas and the European Union?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
49.5 | 51.7 | ||
No | 27.5 | 24.8 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 23.0 | 23.5 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that opening the Rafah Crossing for three days this week was meant to defuse the crisis in the Gaza Strip?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
51.3 | 55.6 | ||
No | 41.4 | 36.0 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 7.3 | 8.4 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that opening the Rafah Crossing is considered an initial step toward ending the crisis in the Gaza Strip?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
44.5 | 44.5 | ||
No | 49.8 | 49.2 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 5.7 | 6.3 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that Hamas was able to convince the Egyptians that it is capable of running Rafah Crossing by itself solely?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
29.9 | 29.9 | ||
No | 57.6 | 56.2 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 12.5 | 14.0 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that the corruption charges against the Israeli Prime minister Olmert will affect the negotiation track between the Palestinians and the Israelis?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
52.3 | 54.5 | ||
No | 40.8 | 39.3 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 6.9 | 6.2 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
How do you assess the performance of the Palestinian Presidency at the present time?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
59.4 | 59.7 | ||
Bad | 32.7 | 33.1 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 7.9 | 7.2 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Regardless of its legitimacy or illegitimacy, do you support or reject the general policy of the Palestinian government led by Salam Fayyad?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
I support | 49.3 | 49.7 | |
I reject | 40.1 | 39.4 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 10.5 | 10.9 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Regardless of its legitimacy or illegitimacy, do you support or reject the general policy of the dissolved government of Ismael Haniyeh?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
I support | 32.1 | 32.3 | |
I reject | 57.3 | 55.3 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 10.7 | 12.3 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
How do you assess the performance of Salam Fayyad's care-taker government?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
49.4 | 49.8 | ||
Bad | 40.0 | 37.9 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 10.6 | 12.3 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
How do you assess the performance of Ismael Haniyeh's dissolved government?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
33.9 | 35.1 | ||
Bad | 54.3 | 50.1 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 11.8 | 14.8 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you support or reject dissolving the PLC?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
I support | 58.2 | 62.2 | |
I reject | 31.6 | 29.7 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 10.2 | 8.1 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you support or reject conducting early Presidential elections?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
I support | 67.9 | 72.4 | |
I reject | 24.7 | 22.6 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 7.4 | 5.0 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
If presidential elections are held in the present time, to whom from among the following do you give your vote?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
An independent candidate | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.4 |
A candidate from the left | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.4 |
A candidate from Hamas | 14.9 | 12.6 | 19.0 |
A candidate from Fateh | 32.6 | 25.6 | 44.6 |
A national independent candidate | 5.1 | 6.9 | 2.2 |
An Islamic independent candidate | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 |
I will not participate in the elections | 20.4 | 25.5 | 11.8 |
I have not decided yet | 13.8 | 15.7 | 10.4 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
If new PLC elections are conducted, whom do you vote for?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
An independent ticket | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 |
A ticket from the left | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
A ticket from Hamas | 16.2 | 12.9 | 21.8 |
A ticket from Fateh | 32.8 | 26.3 | 44.0 |
A national independent ticket | 5.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 |
An Islamic independent ticket | 4.0 | 4.5 | 3.2 |
I will not participate in the elections | 19.3 | 24.4 | 10.4 |
I have not decided yet | 14.0 | 16.0 | 10.6 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
If new legislative elections were to be held today, which of the following would win?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Independent Islamists bloc | 6.4 | 4.7 | 6.4 |
Independent Nationalist bloc | 7.2 | 8.4 | 5.2 |
Fateh bloc | 45.4 | 43.5 | 48.6 |
Hamas bloc | 20.5 | 19.9 | 21.6 |
A bloc from leftist organizations | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
No opinion/I do not know | 20.9 | 22.4 | 18.2 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
The Palestinian Government began a security campaign in the city of Jenin to impose order and the rule of law on the city. Do you think that the campaign will succeed?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
It will succeed | 54.5 | 59.9 | |
It will fail | 31.3 | 30.3 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 14.3 | 9.8 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
The Palestinian Government had started a security campaign in the city of Nablus to impose order and the rule of law on the city. Do believe that the campaign succeeded in Nablus?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
It succeeded | 49.6 | 50.5 | |
It failed | 31.1 | 30.6 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 19.3 | 19.0 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you think that the Palestinian security forces are capable of imposing law and order on the areas in which they were redeployed?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Yes | 59.9 | 60.9 | |
No | 31.0 | 32.3 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 9.1 | 6.7 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Do you support or reject the notion that Palestinian arms should be in the hands of Palestinian security apparatuses, and that any other arms in the hands of other Palestinian men will be considered arms for racketeering business?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
I support | 65.5 | 70.2 | |
I reject | 31.2 | 27.4 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 3.3 | 2.3 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
If you are an employee and you are offered an early retirement, will you accept or reject the offer?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
40.2 | 42.6 | ||
I reject | 51.3 | 53.7 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 8.5 | 3.7 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Are you worried about your life under the present circumstances?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Yes | 58.7 | 57.3 | |
No | 39.7 | 42.3 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 1.6 | 0.3 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Are you pessimistic or optimistic towards the general Palestinian situation at this stage?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Optimistic | 35.2 | 36.7 | |
Pessimistic | 62.8 | 62.1 | |
No opinion/I do not know | 2.0 | 1.2 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Under the present circumstances, do you feel that you, your family and your properties are safe?
Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip | |
Yes | 17.7 | 17.1 | |
May be | 33.6 | 34.7 | |
No | 48.7 | 48.3 | |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Which of the following political affiliations do you support?
PARTY | Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip |
People’s Party | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
Democratic Front | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
Islamic Jihad | 2.6 | 1.6 | 4.2 |
Fateh | 40.1 | 33.4 | 51.6 |
Hamas | 17.5 | 16.7 | 18.8 |
Fida | 0.1 | 0 | 0.4 |
Popular Front | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
Palestinian National Initiative | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
I am an independent nationalist | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.8 |
I am an independent Islamist | 3.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 |
None of the above | 24.4 | 32.4 | 10.6 |
Others | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.2 |
Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
