An-Najah National University

Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies

Tel: (972) (9) 2345113           Fax: (972)(9) 2345982

Nablus – Palestinian: P.O.Box 7, 707

Email: [email protected] [email protected]

Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll

No. 35

18-20 September 2008

Background

The Palestinian political realities are still suffering from a sate of division between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and the division is intensified by a verbal conflict that escalates with the approaching end of President Mahmoud Abbas's term. Several legal councilors and advisors assert that the President's term ends simultaneously with the term of the PLC in January 2010. Others, however, say that the President's term ends in January of 2009

On the other side of the Palestinian scene, Palestinian Israeli negotiations are stand still; they do not show any progress. More than one Palestinian official declared that the negotiations are not going to lead to the creation of a Palestinian state by the end of this year as envisioned by the United States and other participants in these negotiations.

As for the truce (hudna) in the Gaza Strip between Hamas and the Israeli Government, all parties are still satisfied with their commitment to the conditions of the truce. Some evasions of ceasefire occur every now and then and several Palestinian factions in the Strip declared more than once that the truce is fragile and that Israel is not committed to its terms and conditions.

The Results

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No. 35 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 18-20 September 2008. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

Palestinian public opinion poll no. 35 undertakes the current political realities especially the Palestinian presidential and, PLC elections, the truce (hudna) between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the peace negotiations, the suggested Arab troops, the attempts for reconciliations between Fateh and Hamas in addition to political affiliations and other issues.

The sample included 1360 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 860 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 3.8% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

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The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not, by any means, represent the opinion of An-Najah National University.

The General Results:

• 61.1% of respondents supported dissolving the PLC;  29.6% rejected.
• 20.1% of respondents supported conducting presidential elections at the end of the current President's term; 77.5% rejected
• 50.7% of respondents supported continuing negotiations under their present conditions between the Palestinian Authority and Israel.
• 18.4% of respondents believed that the present PLC members are performing their duties as required of them.
• 42.4% of respondents supported allowing Arab troops to enter the Gaza Strip.
• 52.7% of respondents supported the position of Palestinian factions who oppose allowing Arab troops to enter the West Bank.
• 30.1% of respondents supported allowing Arab troops to enter the West Bank.
• 27.4% of respondents supported allowing Arab troops to enter the West Bank and the Gaza Strip simultaneously.
• 71.5% of respondents supported the truce (hudna) between Hamas and Israel by which Hamas stops firing rockets against Israel and, in return, Israel stops its military operations in the Gaza Strip.
• 37.1% of respondents believed that if Hamas accepts a truce with Israel, it would mean a retreat from the armed struggle option.
• 40.4% of respondents believed that the Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip accepted willingly the truce that Hamas declared.
• 48.8% of respondents believed that the truce between Hamas and Israel is an introduction to direct negotiations on the future of the Gaza Strip
• 54.9% of respondents believed that Fateh Movement is serious in its call for a comprehensive national reconciliation
• 39.2% of respondents believed that Hamas Movement is serious in its call for a comprehensive national reconciliation
• 58.2% of respondents believed that the Palestinian public are ready to bring a national reconciliation to a success.
• 51.8% of respondents believed that the Palestinian leaderships of all factions are serious in their intentions to bring a national reconciliation to a success.
• 54.9% of respondents believed that the Palestinian Presidency is serious in its call for a national reconciliation.
• 36.5% of respondents believed that the Arab attempts towards making a reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas will succeed.
• 27.6% of respondents supported the suggestion that calls for the formation of a Hashemite Jordanian-Palestinian kingdom.
• 41.7% of respondents supported dissolving the Palestinian Authority.
• 22.6% of respondents believed that Hamas is the responsible party before Palestinians for the on-going internal division; 14.6% believed that Fateh is the responsible party while 52% believed that some persons inside the two movements are responsible.
• 42.5% of respondents supported the creation of two states on the land of historic Palestine (a Palestinian state and Israel).
• 67.1% of respondents supported the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied Palestinian territories.
• 36% of respondents believed that the negotiations that President Mahmoud Abbas conducts will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories.
• 32.9% of respondents believed that Palestinian resistance in its present shape will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories.
• 61.2% of respondents assessed the performance of the Palestinian Presidency at the present time as "good".
• Regardless of legitimacy or illegitimacy, 57.3% of respondent supported the general policy of the care-taker government of Salam Fayyad.
• Regardless of legitimacy or illegitimacy, 29% of respondents supported the general policy of the dissolved government of Ismael Haniyeh.
• 58.6% of respondents assessed the performance of the care-taker government of Salam Fayyad as "good".
• 29.4% of respondents assessed the performance of the dissolved government of Ismael Haniyeh as "good".
• 76.9% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 38.5% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 17.4% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
• 78.1% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 37.9% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 17.7% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
• If PLC elections are to be conducted, 42.9% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 17.2% expected the winning of Hamas.
• 78.2% of respondents supported the formation of a transitional government  whose aim will be to prepare for and supervise Presidential and PLC elections
• 61% of respondents believed that the Palestinian security forces are capable of imposing order and the rule of law on the areas in which they were redeployed.
• 71.3% of respondents supported the notion that Palestinian arms must only be in the hands of the Palestinian security apparatuses.
• 52.7% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
• 37.2% of respondents said that the current security, political and economic conditions will drive them to emigrate.
• 61.2% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
• 77% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.
• As for political affiliation respondents gave the following results:

The General Results of the Poll

Do you support or reject dissolving the PLC?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I strongly support	23.2	11.5	43.4
I support	37.9	45.1	25.4
I reject	23.4	28.8	14.0
I strongly reject	6.2	2.3	12.8
No opinion/I do not know	6.3	12.2	4.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject conducting new Presidential elections by the end of the current president's term?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I strongly support	14.0	13.4	15.0
I support	6.1	1.7	13.6
I reject	26.8	21.3	36.2
I strongly reject	50.7	60.8	33.2
No opinion/I do not know	2.5	2.8	2.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject continuing negotiations under their present realities between the Palestinian Authority and Israel?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I strongly support	13.5	10.0	19.6
I support	37.1	42.1	28.6
I reject	33.4	37.0	27.2
I strongly reject	13.5	8.6	22.0
No opinion/I do not know	2.4	2.3	2.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the current PLC members are performing their duties as required of them?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	18.4	17.3	20.2
No	70.4	71.6	68.2
No opinion/I do not know	11.3	11.0	11.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject bringing Arab troops to the Gaza Strip?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I strongly support	12.8	5.1	26.0
I support	29.6	34.8	20.8
I reject	33.7	39.8	23.2
I strongly reject	21.1	17.4	27.4
No opinion/I do not know	2.8	2.9	2.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject the position of Palestinian factions that oppose bringing Arab troops to the Gaza Strip?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I strongly support	17.4	11.2	28.2
I support	35.3	40.7	26.0
I reject	34.6	39.5	26.0
I strongly reject	8.0	4.9	13.4
No opinion/I do not know	4.7	3.7	6.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject bringing Arab troops to the West Bank?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I strongly support	9.0	2.8	19.8
I support	21.1	23.0	17.6
I reject	45.7	54.2	31.0
I strongly reject	21.0	18.1	26.0
No opinion/I do not know	3.2	1.9	5.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject sending Arab troops to the West Bank and the Gaza Strip simultaneously?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	27.4	26.5	29.0
No	67.4	69.8	63.2
No opinion/I do not know	5.2	3.7	7.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Hamas movement and Israel declared a truce in the Gaza Strip by which Hamas stops firing rockets against Israel and, in return, Israel stops its military operations in the Gaza Strip. Do you support or reject  this truce?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I strongly support	19.2	13.5	29.0
I support	52.3	63.4	33.2
I reject	17.8	17.9	17.6
I strongly reject	8.5	3.0	17.8
No opinion/I do not know	2.3	2.2	2.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that by accepting the truce Hamas is retreating from the armed struggle option?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	37.1	29.4	50.4
No	55.9	62.8	44.0
No opinion/I do not know	7.0	7.8	5.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip agreed willingly on the truce that Hamas declared?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
They agreed willingly	40.4	41.5	38.6
They agreed under some pressure from Hamas	39.9	37.0	44.8
Other	2.6	2.7	2.6
No opinion/I do not know	17.1	18.8	14.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the truce between Hamas and Israel is an introduction to direct negotiations on the future of the Gaza Strip?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	48.8	47.7	50.8
No	40.7	42.4	37.6
No opinion/I do not know	10.5	9.9	11.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that Fateh movement is serious in its call for a comprehensive national reconciliation?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	54.9	51.7	60.4
No	38.8	42.9	31.8
No opinion/I do not know	6.3	5.3	7.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that Hamas movement is serious in its call for a comprehensive national reconciliation?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	39.2	42.8	33.0
No	52.0	49.3	56.6
No opinion/I do not know	8.8	7.9	10.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the Palestinian public are ready to bring a national reconciliation to a success?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	58.2	60.2	54.8
No	35.4	36.2	34.0
No opinion/I do not know	6.4	3.6	11.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the leaders of all Palestinian factions are really concerned with a successful national reconciliation?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	51.8	53.6	48.8
No	39.9	40.1	39.6
No opinion/I do not know	8.2	6.3	11.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the Palestinian Presidency is serious in its call for a comprehensive national reconciliation?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	54.9	54.4	55.8
No	37.5	38.7	35.4
No opinion/I do not know	7.6	6.9	8.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

There are several Arab attempts made towards achieving a reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas. Do you think that these attempts will succeed?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	36.5	37.7	34.4
No	50.8	54.3	44.8
No opinion/I do not know	12.7	8.0	20.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

There has been a media proposition lately referring to the formation of a Hashemite Jordanian-Palestinian kingdom. Do you support or reject such proposition?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I strongly support	9.7	5.1	17.6
I support	17.9	21.2	12.4
I reject	34.0	39.8	24.0
I strongly reject	32.8	30.9	36.0
No opinion/I do not know	5.6	3.0	10.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject dissolving the Palestinian Authority?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I strongly support	13.4	9.9	19.4
I support	28.3	31.6	22.6
I reject	37.6	43.3	27.8
I strongly reject	16.5	11.3	25.6
No opinion/I do not know	4.2	4.0	4.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Who in your opinion from among Palestinians is responsible for the on-going internal Palestinian division?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Fateh movement	14.6	13.7	16.0
Hamas movement	22.6	13.5	38.4
Some persons from both movements	52.0	59.9	38.4
Other (specify)	4.2	5.3	2.2
No opinion/I do not know	6.6	7.6	5.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject the creation of two states on the historic land of Palestine (a Palestinian state and Israel)?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	42.5	41.7	43.8
I reject	54.3	56.2	51.0
No opinion/I do not know	3.2	2.1	5.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 Do you support or reject the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	67.1	67.4	66.4
I reject	29.6	30.6	27.8
No opinion/I do not know	3.4	2.0	5.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the negotiations that President Mahmoud Abbas is conducting will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	36.0	33.1	41.0
No	53.7	59.2	44.2
No opinion/I do not know	10.3	7.7	14.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the Palestinian resistance in its present form will lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the 1967 occupied territories?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	32.9	33.7	31.4
No	59.0	60.0	57.2
No opinion/I do not know	8.2	6.3	11.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

How do you assess the performance of the Palestinian Presidency at the present time?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Good	61.2	62.7	58.6
Bad	31.8	30.8	33.4
No opinion/I do not know	7.1	6.5	8.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Regardless of its legitimacy or illegitimacy, do you support or reject the general policy of the Palestinian government led by Salam Fayyad?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	57.3	57.9	56.2
I reject	32.3	30.6	35.2
No opinion/I do not know	10.4	11.5	8.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Regardless of its legitimacy or illegitimacy, do you support or reject the general policy of the dissolved government of Ismael Haniyeh?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	29.0	31.0	25.4
I reject	61.0	57.1	67.8
No opinion/I do not know	10.0	11.9	6.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

How do you assess the performance of Salam Fayyad's care-taker government?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Good	58.6	59.9	56.4
Bad	30.4	27.6	35.4
No opinion/I do not know	11.0	12.6	8.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

How do you assess the performance of Ismael Haniyeh's dissolved government?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Good	29.4	31.7	25.4
Bad	58.1	53.5	66.0
No opinion/I do not know	12.5	14.8	8.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

If presidential elections are held in the present time, to whom from among the following do you give your vote?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
An independent candidate	7.3	7.9	6.2
A candidate from the left	2.8	2.4	3.4
A candidate from Hamas	13.4	11.3	17.0
A candidate from Fateh	29.6	26.4	35.2
A national independent candidate	6.0	7.0	4.4
An Islamic independent candidate	3.7	4.0	3.2
I will not participate in the elections	23.1	24.1	21.4
I have not decided yet	14.1	17.0	9.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

If new PLC elections are conducted, whom do you vote for?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
An independent ticket	6.1	7.1	4.4
A ticket from the left	3.1	2.7	3.8
A ticket from Hamas	13.8	11.7	17.4
A ticket from Fateh	29.6	26.3	35.4
A national independent ticket	6.0	6.9	4.4
An Islamic independent ticket	4.6	5.1	3.6
I will not participate in the elections	21.9	22.6	20.8
I have not decided yet	14.9	17.7	10.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

If new legislative elections were to be held today, which of the following would win?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Independent Islamists bloc	5.5	4.3	7.6
Independent Nationalist bloc	7.9	8.0	7.6
Fateh bloc	42.9	44.9	39.6
Hamas bloc	17.2	17.4	16.8
A bloc from leftist organizations	2.0	2.1	1.8
No opinion/I do not know	24.5	23.3	26.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Are you in favor of forming a transitional government for the purpose  of preparing  for and supervising new presidential and PLC elections?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	78.2	80.8	73.6
No	15.2	14.8	16.0
No opinion/I do not know	6.6	4.4	10.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you think that the Palestinian security forces are capable of imposing law and order on the areas in which they were redeployed?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	61.0	59.5	63.4
No	34.0	73.3	28.2
No opinion/I do not know	5.1	3.1	8.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do you support or reject the notion that Palestinian arms should be in the hands of Palestinian security apparatuses, and that any other arms in the hands of other Palestinian men will be considered arms for racketeering business?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	71.3	73.0	68.4
I reject	25.4	24.3	27.4
No opinion/I do not know	3.2	2.7	4.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Are you worried about your life under the present circumstances?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	52.7	48.4	60.2
No	46.1	50.6	38.4
No opinion/I do not know	1.2	1.0	1.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Do the current security, political and economic circumstances urge you to emigrate?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	37.2	27.8	53.4
No	62.0	72.0	44.8
No opinion/I do not know	0.8	0.2	1.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Are you pessimistic or optimistic towards the general Palestinian situation at this stage?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Optimistic	35.8	39.1	30.2
Pessimistic	61.2	59.0	65.0
No opinion/I do not know	3.0	2.0	4.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Under the present circumstances, do you feel that you, your family and your properties are safe?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	22.2	21.9	22.8
May be	32.4	34.4	29.0
No	44.6	43.4	46.6
No opinion/I do not know	0.8	0.3	1.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

Which of the following political affiliations do you support?