Background

The Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) submitted a bid to the United Nations (UN) requesting full membership and a recognition of the State of Palestine within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital. President Mahmoud Abbas gave a speech at the UN and submitted the membership application. The application was forwarded to the Security Council to be studied and voted on. The USA threatened to use the veto if such petition is presented to the Security Council.

An agreement has been signed between Israel and Hamas in Cairo by which Gilad Shalit will be released in return for that Israel will release 1027 Palestinian prisoners, some from among them are sentenced to  long term imprisonment. 

The division between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip persists and each side adheres to its precepts without any signs for an imminent end of this division.

The Results

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 43 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 13-15 October 2011. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no 43 undertakes Palestinian public opinion in the emerging political realities on the Palestinian scene, the PLO’s bid for a full membership in  the UN and the recognition of the State of Palestine within the 1967 borders and their ensuing consequences. The poll also undertakes the prisoners exchange deal between Israel and Hamas, the possibility of conducting presidential, legislative and local council and municipality elections, the performance of the Governments of Salam Fayyad and Ismail Haniyeh in addition to the political affiliations of Palestinian people.

 

The sample included 1361 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 861 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 2.4% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire

The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not, by any means, represent the opinion of An-Najah National University.

The General Results:

• 77.7% of respondents believed that submitting a bid to the UN by the PLO and the Palestinian Authority (PA) to recognize the State of Palestine was a positive move that serves the interest of the Palestinian people; 19.1% believed the opposite.
• 73% of respondents believed that the PLO and the PA carried out a successful diplomatic campaign when they submitted the bid at the UN for the recognition of the State of Palestine
• 56.2% of respondents believed that submitting a bid to the UN by the PLO and the PA to recognize the State of Palestine will affect the Palestinian cause positively; 17.6% believed that the effect will be negative.
• 45.4% of respondents believed that the voting in the Security Council will be in favor of the recognition of the State of Palestine.
• 54.7% of respondents believed that the PLO and PA are capable of gaining the support of 9 members of the Security Council to recognize the State of Palestine.
• 67.1% of respondents believed that the United States will use the veto at the Security Council against the recognition of the State of Palestine.
• 82.6% of respondents considered the use of the veto by the United States at the Security Council against the recognition of the State of Palestine as an American encouragement of the Israeli policy in the Palestinian Territories.
• 24.6% of respondents believed that the USA is pursuing every possible path that is within its reach to salvage the peace process.  
• 29.8% of respondents believed that establishing the Palestinian State cannot be achieved except through negotiations; 64.4% believed the opposite.
• 79.4% of respondents believed that there is no use in conducting negotiations without indicating a specific frame of reference and without freezing settlement activities.
• 13.4% of respondents considered the United States an impartial broker in the peace process between the PA and Israel.
• 34.2% of respondents considered the European Union an impartial broker in the peace process between the PA and Israel.
• 27.5% of respondents considered the International Quartet an impartial broker in the peace process between the PA and Israel.
• If the Palestinian State is recognized in the UN, 42.5% of respondents said that the recognition will affect the negotiations on the refugee question positively; 29.8% said that recognition will affect negotiations on refugees negatively.
• If the Palestinian State is recognized in the UN, 40.6% of respondents said that the recognition will affect the negotiations on Jerusalem positively; 32.5% said that recognition will affect negotiations on Jerusalem negatively.
• If the Palestinian State is recognized in the UN, 40.3% of respondents said that the recognition will affect the negotiations on the borders question positively; 32.2% said that recognition will affect negotiations on borders negatively.
  • 77.7% of respondents rejected holding talks between the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the Israeli Government in case Israel continues building settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem; 18.4% supported.
• 22.7% of respondents believed that it is possible to reach a lasting settlement for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict under the current circumstances.
• 68.6% of respondents saw that the USA and the European countries have a duplicity of standards when they support the demands of the popular revolutions in the Arab countries and do not support similar Palestinian demands.
  • 57.2% of respondents expected the eruption of a third Intifada in the Palestinian Territories.
  • 36% of respondents supported the rise of an armed intifada; 57.6% rejected
    • 58.3% of respondents supported the rise of a nonviolent and unarmed popular resistance; 35.9% rejected
    • 77.3% of respondents believed that the surrounding Arab and international circumstances necessitate concluding a national reconciliation agreement between Fateh and Hamas.
    • 70.6% of respondents believed that it is possible to reach a national reconciliation agreement between Fateh and Hamas in the near future.
    • 40.3% of respondents believed that signing a national reconciliation agreement will lead to speeding up the peace process; 24.5% believed that signing of a reconciliation agreement will entangle and stop the peace process.
    • 86.1% from among respondents said that they are content with the agreement signed between Israel and Hamas in Cairo by which Gilad Shalit will be released in return for releasing 1027 Palestinian prisoners; some from among them are sentenced to  long term imprisonment
    • 67.7% from among respondents said that the prisoner-exchange deal between Israel and Hamas will increase the support of Hamas among the Palestinians.
    • 63.5% from among respondents said that the prisoner-exchange deal between Israel and Hamas will lead to the speeding up of the national reconciliation process.
    • 49.2% from among respondents said that Israel agreed to sign a deal of prisoners exchange at this particular time to curb the rising internal protests and strikes; 16.8% said that Israel agreed to the deal because of the realities that dominate the Arab World after the Arab Springs; 23.7% said it is because the PLO submitted a bid to UN asking for a full recognition of the Palestinian State.
    • 15.3% from among respondents said that Hamas agreed to sign a deal of  prisoners exchange at this particular time to secure an Israeli commitment not to assassinate Hamas leaders if they leave Damascus; 40.6% said that Hamas agreed to the deal to boost its popularity among Palestinians; 12.6% said it is because of the realities that dominate the Arab World after the Arab Springs 15.9% said it is because the PLO submitted a bid to UN asking for a full recognition of the Palestinian State.
    • 33.1% of respondents supported conducing presidential elections despite the Palestinian division; 62.5% rejected
    • 78% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 35.3% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 10.1% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
    • 32.8% of respondents supported conducing legislative elections despite the Palestinian division; 61.4% rejected.
    • 78.4% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 36.5% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 10.2% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
    • If PLC elections are to be conducted, 43.4% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 12.3% expected the winning of Hamas.
    • 45.8% of respondents supported conducing municipality and local council elections despite the Palestinian division; 47.5% rejected
    • 80.9% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming municipality and local council elections. From among those who said they will participate, 32.2% said that they will give their votes to Fateh’s candidates, 10.5% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates and 7% said they will give their votes to the representative of their family or clan.
    • 48.2% of respondents believed that if elections are conducted in the Palestinian Territories at the present time, they will be fair and unbiased.
    • 30% of respondents said that the current political, security and economic circumstances compel them to desire emigrating.
    • 36.8% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
    • 53.3% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
    • 64.8% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.
    • As for political affiliation, respondents gave the following results:

 

 

The General Results of the Poll

 

Do you think that submitting a bid by the PLO and the PA to recognize the State of Palestine in the UN was a positive move that serves the Palestinian cause?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	77.7	83.4	68.0
No	19.1	15.0	26.2
No opinion/I do not know	3.2	1.6	5.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do you think that the PLO and the PA conducted a good diplomatic campaign when they submitted the bid of recognition at the UN?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	73.0	77.0	66.2
No	19.9	17.1	24.8
No opinion/I do not know	7.1	5.9	9.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

How, in your opinion, does the bid of recognition influence the Palestinian cause?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Positively	56.2	59.5	50.6
No influence	21.4	19.3	25.0
Negatively	17.6	16.8	18.8
No opinion/I do not know	4.8	4.4	5.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do you think that the Security Council will vote in favor of the creation of the Palestinian State.?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	45.4	49.2	38.8
No	43.5	44.0	42.6
No opinion/I do not know	11.1	6.7	18.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

 Do you think that the PLO and the PA are capable of securing 9 votes in the Security Council to guarantee a recognition of the Palestinian State?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	54.7	58.3	48.4
No	32.5	31.9	33.4
No opinion/I do not know	12.9	9.8	18.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Since the US has threatened to use the veto at the Security Council against the recognition of the Palestinian State, do you think that the US will use the veto?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	67.1	72.5	57.8
No	22.6	20.7	25.8
No opinion/I do not know	10.4	6.9	16.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

If the US uses the veto at the Security Council against the recognition of the State of Palestine, do you think that the veto will encourage Israel to proceed in its policy in the Palestinian Territories?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	82.6	85.4	77.8
No	11.3	10.9	12.0
No opinion/I do not know	6.1	3.7	10.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do you think that the USA will  pursue every possible way that is within its reach  to salvage the peace process?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	24.6	24.7	24.4
No	69.6	71.9	65.6
No opinion/I do not know	5.8	3.4	10.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do you think that the Palestinian State can only be established through negotiations?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	29.8	35.5	19.8
No	64.4	59.6	72.8
No opinion/I do not know	5.8	4.9	7.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do think that there will be any use from negotiations without acceptable frames of reference and without the freezing of settlement activities?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	14.7	13.8	16.2
No	79.4	83.0	73.2
No opinion/I do not know	5.9	3.1	10.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

 

 

Do you think that the USA is an impartial broker in the peace process between the PA and Israel?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	13.4	13.1	13.8
No	82.5	85.7	77.0
No opinion/I do not know	4.1	1.2	9.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do you think that the European Union  is an impartial broker in the peace process between the PA and Israel?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	34.2	40.9	22.8
No	57.8	54.4	63.6
No opinion/I do not know	8.0	4.8	13.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do you think that the International Quartet is an impartial broker in the peace process between the PA and Israel?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	27.5	32.5	18.8
No	59.8	58.3	62.4
No opinion/I do not know	12.7	9.2	18.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

If the Palestinian State is recognized in the UN, how will this recognition influence negotiations on the issue of refugees?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Positively	42.5	45.2	37.8
No influence	23.4	21.1	27.2
Negatively	29.8	28.9	31.2
No opinion/I do not know	4.4	4.8	3.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

If the Palestinian State is recognized in the UN, how will this recognition influence negotiations on the issue of Jerusalem?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Positively	40.6	43.9	35.0
No influence	20.7	18.0	25.4
Negatively	32.5	34.0	30.0
No opinion/I do not know	6.1	4.1	9.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

 

 

If the Palestinian State is recognized in the UN, how will this recognition influence negotiations on the issue of borders?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Positively	40.3	42.7	36.0
No influence	20.6	17.9	25.4
Negatively	32.2	34.6	28.0
No opinion/I do not know	6.9	4.8	10.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do you support or reject holding talks between the PA and the Israeli government if Israel continues its settlement activities in the West Bank and East Jerusalem?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	18.4	20.2	15.4
I reject	77.7	77.4	78.2
No opinion/I do not know	3.9	2.4	6.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do you think that it is possible to reach a lasting solution for the Palestinian Israeli conflict in view of the current circumstances,?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	22.7	25.8	17.4
No	72.2	70.3	75.4
No opinion/I do not know	5.1	3.9	7.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do you think that the USA and the European countries have a duplicity of standards when they support the demands of the popular revolutions in the Arab countries and do not support similar Palestinian demands?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	68.6	74.3	58.8
No	20.9	18.2	25.6
No opinion/I do not know	10.4	7.4	15.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do you expect an eruption of a third intifada in the Palestinian Territories?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	57.2	55.3	60.6
No	35.3	39.4	28.4
No opinion/I do not know	7.4	5.3	11.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

 

 

  Do you support or reject the rise of an armed uprising (intifada)?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	36.0	28.0	49.8
I reject	57.6	67.9	39.8
No opinion/I do not know	6.4	4.1	10.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do you support or reject the rise of nonviolent and unarmed popular resistance?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	58.3	65.0	46.8
I reject	35.9	32.6	41.6
No opinion/I do not know	5.7	2.3	11.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do you think that the surrounding Arab and international circumstances necessitate concluding a national reconciliation agreement between Fateh and Hamas?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	77.4	81.6	70.2
No	18.7	16.3	22.8
No opinion/I do not know	3.9	2.1	7.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do you think that it is possible to reach a national reconciliation agreement between Fateh and Hamas in the near future?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	70.6	78.7	56.6
No	22.3	16.7	31.8
No opinion/I do not know	7.1	4.5	11.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

In case a national reconciliation agreement is signed, what do you think the consequences will be?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Speeding the Peace process	40.3	41.9	37.4
Entangling and stopping the peace process	24.5	27.9	18.8
It will not have any effect	27.6	25.0	32.2
No opinion/I do not know	7.6	5.2	11.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

 

 

Are you content with the exchange of prisoners agreement that was reached between Israel and Hamas which will lead to the release of Gilad Shalit in return for releasing 1027 Palestinian prisoners some of whom are sentenced to long term imprisonment?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	86.1	90.0	79.4
No	11.0	8.9	14.6
No opinion/I do not know	2.9	1.1	6.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do you think that the exchange of prisoners agreement that was reached between Israel and Hamas will increase the popularity of Hamas among Palestinians?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	67.7	75.5	54.4
No	25.3	19.7	35.0
No opinion/I do not know	6.9	4.8	10.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do you think that the exchange of prisoners agreement that was reached between Israel and Hamas will speed the reconciliation process?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	63.5	69.8	52.6
No	27.0	23.6	33.0
No opinion/I do not know	9.5	6.6	14.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Why do you think that Israel agreed to conclude a prisoners exchange deal at this particular time?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
To curb the current internal waves of protests and strikes	49.2	47.0	53.0
Because of the conditions that prevailed after the Arab Springs	16.8	16.6	17.2
Because the PLO submitted a bid for the recognition of the Palestinian State in the UN	23.7	28.6	15.4
No opinion/I do not know	10.2	7.8	14.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

 

 

Why do you think that Hamas agreed to conclude a prisoners exchange deal at this particular time?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
To obtain a commitment from Israel not to assassinate Hamas leaders if they leave Damascus	15.3	12.7	19.8
To increase its popularity  among Palestinians People	40.6	41.1	39.8
Because of the conditions that prevailed after the Arab Springs	12.6	12.1	13.6
Because the PLO submitted a bid for the recognition of the Palestinian State in the UN	15.9	19.4	10.0
No opinion/I do not know	15.5	14.8	16.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

Do you supported conducting presidential elections despite the Palestinian division?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	33.1	34.8	30.2
I reject	62.5	62.6	62.4
No opinion/I do not know	4.3	2.6	7.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

 

If presidential elections are held in the present time, to whom from among the following do you give your vote?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
An independent candidate	6.7	5.8	8.2
A candidate from the left	2.2	1.9	2.8
A candidate from Hamas	7.9	4.9	13.0
A candidate from Fateh	27.6	26.2	29.8
A national independent candidate	7.1	8.9	3.8
An Islamic independent candidate	3.6	3.1	4.4
I will not participate in the elections	22.0	23.5	19.6
I have not decided yet	23.0	25.7	18.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

 

 

Do you supported conducting legislative elections despite the Palestinian division?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	32.8	35.3	28.6
I reject	61.4	60.5	62.8
No opinion/I do not know	5.8	4.2	8.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

   If new PLC elections are conducted, whom do you vote for?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
An independent ticket	5.7	5.5	6.0
A ticket from the left	2.6	2.1	3.4
A ticket from Hamas	8.0	5.2	12.8
A ticket from Fateh	28.6	27.4	30.6
A national independent ticket	7.2	8.8	4.4
An Islamic independent ticket	3.7	2.7	5.4
I will not participate in the elections	21.6	23.3	18.6
I have not decided yet	22.7	25.0	18.8
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

If new legislative elections are to be held today, which of the following would win?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Independent Islamists bloc	4.2	2.6	7.0
Independent Nationalist bloc	8.8	8.5	9.4
Fateh bloc	43.4	47.3	36.8
Hamas bloc	12.3	11.3	14.2
A bloc from leftist organizations	1.4	1.0	2.0
No opinion/I do not know	29.8	29.4	30.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

  Do you supported conducting municipality and local council elections despite the Palestinian division?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
I support	45.8	54.7	30.4
I reject	47.5	40.5	59.4
No opinion/I do not know	6.8	4.8	10.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

 

 

If municipality and local council elections are to be held, who do you vote for?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
A block that represents the family or clan	5.7	7.8	2.0
An independent ticket	6.0	6.5	5.0
A ticket from the left	1.9	1.6	2.4
A ticket from Hamas	8.5	4.2	16.0
A ticket from Fateh	26.1	24.7	28.4
A national independent ticket	8.2	9.3	6.2
An Islamic independent ticket	2.9	2.7	3.4
I will not participate in the elections	19.1	20.1	17.4
I have not decided yet	21.7	23.1	19.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

If elections are conducted in the Palestinian Territories at the present time, do you expect that they will be fair and unbiased?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	48.2	54.6	37.2
No	39.9	36.6	45.6
No opinion/I do not know	11.9	8.8	17.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

  Do the current political, security and economic circumstances compel you to desire emigrating abroad?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	30.0	20.4	46.4
No	66.9	78.9	46.4
No opinion/I do not know	3.1	0.7	7.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

  Are you worried about your life under the present circumstances?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	36.8	30.3	48.0
No	61.1	69.6	46.6
No opinion/I do not know	2.1	0.1	5.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

  Are you pessimistic or optimistic towards the general Palestinian situation at this stage?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Optimistic	53.3	61.9	38.6
Pessimistic	41.1	35.9	50.2
No opinion/I do not know	5.5	2.2	11.2
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

 Under the present circumstances, do you feel that you, your family and your properties are safe?

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
Yes	34.1	41.6	21.2
May be	34.7	31.0	41.0
No	30.1	27.3	34.8
No opinion/I do not know	1.2	0.1	3.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

    Which of the following political affiliations do you support?