Background

After more than fifty days of war on the Gaza Strip, a long term ceasefire agreement was reached under the auspices of Egypt. Egypt called upon both the Israelis and the Palestinians to abide by a complete ceasefire on both sides that will coincide with the opening of all crossings between the Gaza Strip and Israel. The ceasefire and the opening of the crossings should facilitate the passage of humanitarian and relief aids and construction materials. The fishing zone will be open starting from a range of 6 nautical miles. Indirect negotiations between the two sides to resolve the other subjects will be  resumed within a month of the implementation of the ceasefire.

After more than seven years of Palestinian division and as a result of the negotiations that took place between Fateh and Hamas, an agreement to end the division was reached. Three files were submitted to the reconciliation committee. The first addressed the formation of a national technocrat government with all details related to its implementation and tasks. According to the agreement, a national unity government was formed which was favorably received on the local, regional and  international levels. The second file is related to the PLO Committee, all subjects pertaining to the reformation of the Palestinian National Council (PNC) and the tasks related to the PLO Committee as a temporary frame of a leadership for the Palestinian people. The third file discusses the Presidential and PLC elections defining their dates, principles and the bases on which they will be conducted.

 The Results

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 49 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 11-13 September 2014. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

This poll undertakes the Palestinian public opinion on the new political realities, the results of the last war on the Gaza Strip, the boycott campaign and the possibility of conducting presidential, legislative and local council elections, in addition to the political affiliations of Palestinian people.

The sample included 1360 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 860 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 2.4% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

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The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not, by any means, represent the opinion of An-Najah National University.

The General Results:

• 82.9% of respondents believed that Israel is the side that began the last war on the Gaza Strip while 6.5% believed that the war was initiated by Hamas and the other Palestinian factions.
• As for the items of the Cairo Agreement that respondents thought Israel will comply with, they were as follows:

- Opening the border crossings between the Gaza Strip and Israel 57.6%.

- The gradual cancellation of the protective zone on the borders of the Gaza Strip 41.9%.

- The gradual expansion of the fishing zone 57.6%

- Starting the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip 65.6%

- Establishing a sea port 31.4%

- Reconstructing and operating Gaza airport 30.9%

• 91.2% of respondents saw that Israel was the side that targeted civilians during the last war, 4.3% saw that it was Hamas and the other Palestinian factions who targeted civilians.
• 46.7% of respondents believed that Egypt will open Rafah Crossing permanently when the Palestinian Presidential Guards take charge of running it; 8.5% believed that Egypt will open Rafah Crossing even if the situation stays as it is now.
• 83.2% of respondents supported the decision of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to join international organizations.
• 84.6% of respondents supported the decision of the PA to join the International Criminal Court
• 72.8% of respondents believed that there will be new military encounters with Israel in the Gaza Strip in the near future.
• 76.3% of respondents supported firing rockets against Israel if Israel does not meet the obligations of the last Cairo Agreement.
• 43.8% of respondents expected the success and endurance of the Palestinian reconciliation; 47.2% expected its failure. 
• 92.3% of respondents supported boycotting Israeli goods and products.
• 63.8% of respondents expected the success of the boycott campaign of Israeli goods and products; 30.1% expected its failure. .
• 87.6% of respondents assessed the degree of unity among the Palestinian factions during  the last war on Gaza as ‘good’.
• 57.1% of respondents assessed the role the UNRWA played during the last war on the Gaza Strip as ‘good’
• 60.3% of respondents assessed the role the Red Cross played during  the last war on the Gaza Strip as ‘good’
• 48.7% of respondents assessed the role the PLO played during  the last war on the Gaza Strip as ‘good’
• 62.4% of respondents assessed the role President Mahmoud Abbas played during  the last war on the Gaza Strip as ‘good’
• 61.2% of respondents assessed the role the Palestinian Unity Government played during the last war on the Gaza Strip as ‘good’
• 97.8% of respondents said that they followed up the media coverage of the last war on the Gaza Strip to a large extent.
• 89% of respondents believed that the media coverage of the last war on the Gaza Strip was adequate.
• 81.4% of respondents supported President Mahmoud Abbas’ plan to address the Security Council to obtain a decision compelling Israel to withdraw from the Palestinian territories occupied in 1967. 
• 57.5% of respondents supported a Palestinian and Israeli return to negotiations after the end of the last war on the Gaza Strip; 37.6% rejected.
• 61% of respondents supported adding other countries to the auspices of the negotiations besides the United States.
• 14.8% of respondents saw that the USA is serious this time in leading the negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis to a successful end.
• 7.6% of respondents considered the US an honest arbitrator between the two sides of the conflict.
• 90.9% of respondents looked at the US policy towards the Palestinian issue as generally biased towards the Israeli side; 3.2% said that it is biased towards the Palestinian side while 4% said that it is neutral.

• 56.4% of respondents supported the two-state solution provided that there will be a Palestinian state living side by side with Israel; 38.8% rejected.
• 26.3% of respondents supported the one-state solution in which both Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal rights; 68.3% rejected
• 30.8% of respondents said that they are optimistic towards the success of the peace process between the PA and Israel; 63.3% said that they are pessimistic
• Under the current circumstances, 57.5% of respondents expected the rise of a third intifada in the West Bank.

• 49.3% of respondents supported the rise of an armed uprising (intifada) in the West Bank; 44.2% rejected.

• 56.7% of respondents supported the rise of a nonviolent, unarmed popular uprising (intifada); 35.7% rejected.
• 45% of respondents expected that if elections are conducted in the present time in the Palestinian Territories, they will be fair.
• 82.5% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 25.6% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 27% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.

• 82.2% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 25.9% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 28.4% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
• If PLC elections are to be conducted, 26.2% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 39.7% expected the winning of Hamas.
  • 82.2% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming municipality and local council elections. From among those who said they will participate, 22.7% said that they will give their votes to Fateh’s candidates, 23.8% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates and 10.2% said they will give their votes to the representative of their family or clan.
• In case PLC elections will be conducted, 35.7% of respondents preferred conducting elections on the basis of electoral lists; 28.4% preferred conducting them on the basis of persons.
• 29.8% of respondents said that the current political, security and economic circumstances compel them to desire emigrating.
• 47.2% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
• 54.4% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
• 58% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.
• As for political affiliation, respondents gave the following results:

• 33.8% of respondents preferred conducting local council and municipality elections on the basis of electoral lists; 33.8% preferred conducting them on the basis of persons.

 The General Results of the Poll

 In your opinion who initiated the War in the Gaza Strip?

  The last Cairo Agreement included a number of items, which of the following items do you think Israel will comply with?

 It is said that the last war on the Gaza Strip targeted civilians to a large extent. Which of the two sides was targeting civilians more?

  When do you think Egypt will completely open the Rafah Crossing?

  Do you support or reject the decision of the PA to join the international organizations?

  Do you support or reject the decision of the PA to join the International Criminal Court ?

  Do you think there will be military encounters with Israel in the Gaza Strip in the near future?

  Do you support or reject firing rockets against Israel if Israel does not meet its obligations to the last Cairo Agreement?

  Do you expect the Palestinian reconciliation to succeed and endure?

 Do you support or reject boycotting Israeli goods and products?

  Do you expect the success or the failure of the campaign of boycotting Israeli goods and products in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip?

  How do you assess the degree of unity among Palestinian factions during the last war on the Gaza Strip?

  How do you assess the role the UNRWA played during the last war on the Gaza Strip?

   How do you assess the role the Red Cross played during the last war on the Gaza Strip?

  How do you assess the role the PLO played during the last war on the Gaza Strip?

How do you assess the role President Mahmoud Abbas played during the last war on the Gaza Strip?

  How do you assess the role the Palestinian Unity Government played during the last war on the Gaza Strip?

  Were you following the media coverage of the last war on the Gaza Strip?

  Do you think the media coverage of the last war on the Gaza Strip was adequate? 

   Do you support or reject President Mahmoud Abbas’ plan to approach the Security Council to obtain a decision asking Israel to withdraw from the 1967 Palestinian Territories?

  Now that the war on the Gaza Strip has come to an end, do you support or reject a return of the Israelis and the Palestinians to negotiations?

  Do you support or reject adding other countries besides the United States to the auspices of the negotiations?

  Do you think that the USA is serious this time in its endeavors to bring the peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis to successful end?

   Do you consider the USA a fair arbitrator in the current negotiations between the two sides of conflict?

  In general how do you see the policy of the US towards the Palestinian cause?

  Do you support or reject the two-state solution provided that a Palestinian state is created to live side by side with Israel?

  Do you support or reject a one-state solution in which Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal rights?

  Do you consider yourself optimistic or pessimistic towards the success of the peace process between the Palestinian Authority and Israel?

  In view of the present realities, do you expect the rise of a third intifada in the West Bank?

   Do you support or reject the rise of an armed intifada in the West Bank?

  Do you support or reject the rise of popular, unarmed and nonviolent resistance?

  If elections are to be conducted in the Palestinian Territories at the present time do you think that they will be fair?

  If presidential elections are held in the present time, to whom from among the following do you give your vote?

    If new PLC elections are conducted, whom will you vote for?

  If new legislative elections are to be held today, which of the following will win?

    If municipality and local council elections are to be held, who do you vote for?

  In case PLC elections are conducted, do you prefer conducting them on the basis of electoral lists or on the basis of persons?

  Do you prefer conducting local council elections on the basis of electoral lists or on the basis of individual candidates?

  Do the current political, security and economic circumstances compel you to desire emigrating abroad?

    Are you worried about your life under the present circumstances?

   Are you pessimistic or optimistic towards the general Palestinian situation at this stage?

  Under the present circumstances, do you feel that you, your family and your properties are safe?

 Which of the following political affiliations do you support?