Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll

No. 47

1-3 November 2013

Background

Peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis resumed last July under American auspices, after for a hiatus of nearly three years. Both sides agreed that the negotiations be held inside Israel and the Palestinian Territories. US Secretary of State John Kerry asserted that the negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis would be secret and that any announced results must be only through him. Kerry also asserted the commitment of the US administration to follow up with negotiations until an agreement is reached within a period of six to nine months.

After the resignation of Dr. Salam Fayyad’s government, Prof. Rami Hamdallah was entrusted twice with forming new Palestinian governments.

Divisions between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip still persist while each side adheres to its convictions, and there are no signs that the division will end.

The Results

Following are the results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No. 47, conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 1-3 November 2013. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

This poll undertakes Palestinian public opinion on the new political realities on the Palestinian ground, including the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, Prof. Rami Hamdallah’s government, and the possibility of conducting presidential, legislative and local council elections, in addition to the political affiliations of Palestinian people.

The sample included 1360 people whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed to 860 people from the West Bank and 500 people from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still, 1.76% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

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The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not, by any means, represent the opinion of An-Najah National University.

The General Results:

• 44.2% of respondents supported a return to Palestinian-Israeli negotiations under American auspices; 53.8% rejected. 
• 21.6% of respondents expected the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations held under American auspices to succeed within the defined period of nine months; 70.3% expected them to fail.
• 48.9% of respondents supported the Palestinians continuing these negotiations; 49.1% rejected.
• 58.6% of respondents expected the USA to intervene and to exert pressure on some side to lead the negotiation to a successful end.
• Among respondents who supported an intervention by the USA to exert pressure on some side to lead these negotiations to a successful end, 59% expected the pressure to be exerted on the Palestinian side; 14.4% expected it to be exerted on the Israeli side, while 25.1% expected it to be on both sides.
• 26% of respondents think that the USA is serious this time in leading the negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis to a successful end.
• 10.7% of respondents considered the US an honest arbitrator between the two sides of conflict.
• 90.1% of respondents looked at US policy towards the Palestinian issue as generally biased towards the Israeli side; 3% said that it is biased towards the Palestinian side, while 5.4% said that it is neutral.
• 81.5% of respondents supported conducting a referendum among Palestinians before signing any peace agreement with Israel; 15.7% rejected. 
• 40.7% of respondents supported reaching a provisional agreement similar to that of the Oslo Accord as a result of these negotiations; 53.6% rejected.

• Now that 20 years have elapsed since the signing of the Oslo Accord, 66.2% of respondents believe that it has hurt the Palestinian cause; 27.1% said it has benefited it.
• 51.8% of respondents supported the two-state solution, provided that there will be a Palestinian state living side-by-side with Israel; 46.2% rejected.
• 28.8% of respondents said that they are optimistic towards the success of the peace process between the PA and Israel; 66.7% said that they are pessimistic
• 57.8% of respondents expected the outbreak of a third intifada (uprising) in the West Bank in case the current peace negotiations fail.

• 38.5% of respondents supported the rise of an armed uprising (intifada) in the West Bank; 55.7% rejected.

• 58.7% of respondents supported the rise of a nonviolent, unarmed popular uprising (intifada); 37% rejected.
• 35.8% of respondents supported dissolving the Palestinian Authority should the current peace negotiations fail; 57.7% rejected.
• 51.8% of respondents said that they are optimistic about implementing the Palestinian reconciliation agreement in the near future; 44.1% said they are pessimistic.
• 62.3% of respondents believed that the surrounding Arab and international circumstances necessitate conducting a national reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas.
• 28.8% of respondents said that implementing the Palestinian reconciliation agreement will strengthen and speed up the peace process, while 47.5% said that it will hinder and delay it.

• 13.69% of respondents believed that the current incidents that are happening in Egypt will lead to speeding a national Palestinian reconciliation; 52.1% believed they will delay it and 21.5% believed that they will abort possibilities for reconciliation.
• 10.7% of respondents believed that the change in the political regime in Egypt will lead to strengthening Hamas; 57.3% believed that it will lead to weakening Hamas.
• 72.6% of respondents supported appointing Prof. Rami Hamdallah as Prime Minister; 16.1% rejected.

• 66.4% of respondents believed that Prof. Hamdallah’s government is capable of managing the situation in the West Bank; 19.3% believed it is not.
• 64.2% of respondents believed that the effect of Prof. Hamdallah’s government on the Palestinian people in the West Bank will be positive, while 17.2% believed it will be negative
• 59.2% of respondents expected the fall of the PA should sufficient funds become unavailable.
• 68.2% of respondents feel that Prof. Hamdallah’s government is more capable of managing the internal Palestinian affairs, while 24% feel that Ismail Haniyeh’s government is more capable.
• 70.2% of respondents assessed the performance of Prof. Hamdallah’s government as “good”.
• 37.9% of respondents assessed the performance of Ismail Haniyeh’s government as “good”.
• 75.7% of respondents supported conducting the coming presidential elections after ending the division; 18.2% supported conducting them despite division.
• 76.1% of respondents supported conducting the coming legislative elections after ending the division; 17.3% supported conducting them despite division.
• 46.5% of respondents expected that if elections are conducted in the present time in the PalestinianTerritories, they will be fair.
• 81% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 35.9% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 12.5% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.

• 81.6% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 36.9% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 12.3% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
• If PLC elections are to be conducted, 45.9% of respondents expect Fateh to win; 13.8% expect Hamas to win.
  • 83.7% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming municipal and local council elections. Among those who said they will participate, 30.2% said that they will vote for Fateh’s candidates, 10.9% said they vote for Hamas' candidates, and 12% said they will give vote for the representative of their family or clan.
• In case PLC elections are conducted, 31.3% of respondents preferred conducting elections on the basis of electoral lists; 35.3% preferred conducting them on the basis of candidates.
• 34.1% of respondents said that the current political, security and economic circumstances compel them to desire emigrating.
• 45% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
• 60.1% of respondents said that they are pessimistic about the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
• 73.7% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and property under the current circumstances.
• As for political affiliation, respondents gave the following results:

• 30.4% of respondents preferred conducting local council and municipality elections on the basis of electoral lists; 38.2% preferred conducting them on the basis of candidates.

The General Results of the Poll

Now that the peace negotiations between the Palestinians and Israelis are resumed, do you support or reject these negotiations?

Do you expect the negotiations to fail or to succeed within the defined period of nine months?

Do you support or reject Palestinian participation in these negotiations?

Do you expect the USA to exert pressure on some side in order to lead the negotiations to a successful end?

If the answer to the above question is “yes” on which side do you expect the USA to exert pressure?

Do you think that the USA is serious this time in its endeavors to bring the peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis to successful end?

Do you consider the USA a fair arbitrator in the current negotiations between the two sides of conflict?

In general how do you see the policy of the US towards the Palestinian cause?

 Do you support or reject a referendum to be conducted by the Palestinians before signing any peace agreement with Israel?

Do you support or reject reaching a provisional solution similar to the Oslo Accord as a result of these negotiations?

Now that 20 years have elapsed since signing the Oslo Accord, do you think that the Oslo Accord benefited or hurt the Palestinian cause?

 Do you support or reject the two-state solution, provided that a Palestinian state is created to live side-by-side with Israel?

 Do you consider yourself optimistic or pessimistic towards the success of the peace process between the Palestinian Authority and Israel?

If the current peace negotiations fail, do you expect the outbreak of a third intifada (uprising)?

Do you support or reject the rise of an armed intifada in the West Bank?

 Do you support or reject the rise of popular, unarmed and nonviolent resistance?

 In case the current peace negotiations fail, do you support or reject dissolving the Palestinian Authority?

Are you optimistic or pessimistic towards holding and implementing a reconciliation agreement between Fateh and Hamas in the near future?

 Do you think that the surrounding Arab and international circumstances necessitate national reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas?

  Do you think that the implementation of the reconciliation agreement will hinder or support the peace process?

 What do you think the events that are happening in Egypt will lead to?

 What do you think the change in the political regime in Egypt will lead to?

 Do you support or reject appointing Prof. Rami Hamdallah as Prime Minister?

 Do you think that Prof. Hamdallah’s government is capable of managing the situation in the West Bank?

 How do you think the effect of Prof. Hamadallah’s government will be on Palestinians in the West Bank?

 Do you think that the PA will collapse if sufficient funds become unavailable?

 As you know, there is a government in the West Bank presided by Prof. Rami Hamdallah and another government in the Gaza Strip presided by Ismail Haniyeh. In your opinion, which one is more capable of running  internal affairs?

 How do you assess the performance of Prof. Hamdallah’s government?

 How do you assess the performance of Ismail Haniyeh’s government?

 Do you support conducting the coming Presidential elections despite the division, or after ending it?

Do you support conducting the coming legislative elections despite the division, or after ending it?

If elections are to be conducted in the Palestinian Territories at the present time, do you think that they will be fair?

 If presidential elections are held in the present time, to whom from among the following do you give your vote?

 If new PLC elections are conducted, whom will you vote for?

 If new legislative elections are to be held today, which of the following will win?

  If municipality and local council elections are to be held, who do you vote for?

In case PLC elections are conducted, do you prefer conducting them on the basis of electoral lists or on the basis of individual candidates?

 Do you prefer conducting local council elections on the basis of electoral lists or on the basis of individual candidates?

 Do the current political, security and economic circumstances compel you to desire emigrating abroad?

   Are you worried about your life under the present circumstances?

 Are you pessimistic or optimistic towards the general Palestinian situation at this stage?

 Under the present circumstances, do you feel that you, your family and your property are safe?

  Which of the following political affiliations do you support?