December 24-25, 2005
Background:

The immanent legislative council elections which are scheduled to be held on the 25th of January 06, occupy the attention of the Palestinian public. There is an ongoing debate concerning the number of persons, the running tickets and the possibility of out not conducting these elections on the appointed time due to internal and external reasons. These realties are added to the disagreement among Fateh on the form of the running ticket, the names and nominations of the running persons, the declarations that the US and the EU issued concerning the participation of Hamas in the Legislative Elections, and the possibility of reducing or concealing the financial help given to the Palestinian Authority of Hamas participates in the Palestinian Political system. Further, there is a serious concern among the Palestinian Public that Israel may not allow the Palestinian resident of East Jerusalem from participating in the Legislative Elections. Such procedure, if it took place, would mean postponing the elections or canceling altogether.

The Results:

Following are the results of the Sixteenth Palestinian Public Opinion Poll conducted by the Centre for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from December 24 to 25, 2005. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Centre.
This poll undertakes several subjects centered on the coming Palestinian legislative elections, in addition to political sympathies.
The sample included 1361 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The sample forms one per thousand from among the total number of Palestinian people of this age group. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 861 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 2.7% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.
* The Opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not represent by any means the opinion of An-Najah National University.

Major results:

• 62% from among respondents believe that the second legislative elections will be conducted on its specified date.
• 58.4% from among respondents assert that the legislative elections will be democratic and fair; 30.8% say the opposite.
• 56.9% from among respondents see that the internal security conditions permit conducting legislative elections; 36.3% see the contrary.
• 82.4% from among respondents say that they trust the central Elections Committee.
• 76.2% from among respondents say that they trust the local observers on elections.
• 72.3% from among respondents say that they trust the international observers on elections.
• 66.3% believe that the existence of international observers on elections is necessary.
• 82.8% say that they will participate in the elections.
• 18.7% from among respondent will not participate in the legislative elections because of religious reasons, 3% for political reasons, and 45.1% will not participate because in their view the elections will not change anything.
• When respondents who say that they will not participate in the elections are asked about the factors that may make them change their opinion and participate, 7.2% say that they may change their opinion if they see a convincing elections program that meets their personal ambitions, 0.9% say if they are given financial incentives, 3% say if any of their relatives or acquaintances run for the elections, 16.6% say if they see an elections program that would respond to their national ambitions, and 47.2% say they will not participate under all circumstances.
• The order of the running tickets according to the opinion of respondents came according to the following order:
Change and Reform led by Ismael Abu Hannieh 31.4%
Al-Mustaqbal (Future) led by Marwan Barghuthi 26.8%
Palestinian Liberation Organization (Fateh) led by Moh