جامعة النجاح الوطنية
An-Najah National University

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Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll

No. 50

26-28 March 2015

Background

After the Palestinian Authority (PA) joined the International Criminal Court, Israel has impounded Palestinian tax revenues making the PA unable to pay the full salaries of its employees.

At the last meeting of the Central Council of the Palestine Liberation Organization, the Council gave a recommendation to the PA to cease security coordination with Israel. The PA also called on Palestinian citizens to boycott Israeli goods.

In the recent Israeli elections, Netanyahu and his Likud party won the election and he is expected to form the next Israeli government. Netanyahu had announced during his election campaign that he did not support a solution based on the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. On the other hand, the White House announced the necessity of ending the occupation which has been going on for about fifty years.

The hesitation of donor countries to provide the funds they promised for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, led to a lack of progress in the reconstruction process.

After the agreement between Fatah and Hamas to end the Palestinian division, nothing has been implemented of the agreement other than the formation of a unity government.

 

The Results

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 50 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 26-28 March 2015. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

This poll undertakes the Palestinian public opinion in the decision of the Central Council of the Palestine Liberation Organization to cease security coordination with Israel, the results of the last Israeli elections, Netanyahu’s declarations during his election campaign, the Palestinian campaign to boycott Israeli goods, the  possibility of conducting presidential, legislative, municipality and local council elections in addition to the political affiliations of Palestinian people.

The sample included 1360 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 860 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 2.4% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

_____________________________________________________________________

The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not, by any means, represent the opinion of An-Najah National University.

The General Results:

  • 59% of respondents supported the decision of the Central Council of the Palestine Liberation Organization to cease security coordination between the PA and Israel.
  • 26.6% of respondents believed that the PA will implement the decision of the Central Council of the Palestine Liberation Organization to cease security coordination between the PA and Israel.
  • 56.7% of respondents supported ceasing security coordination between the PA and Israel
  • After Netanyahu and the Likud victory in the recent Israeli elections, 53.2% of respondents, expected a return to the negotiating table
  • After Netanyahu's declaration during the recent Israeli elections that he did not support a solution based on the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, 36.8% of respondents supported a return to the negotiating table, while 56.3% rejected it
  • 48.8% of respondents expected the United States to pressure Israel to return to the negotiating table and accept the two-state solution.
  • After Netanyahu declared his opposition to the two-state solution, 28.7% of respondents believed that the United States would recognize an independent Palestinian state on the 1967 borders if such an appeal is submitted to the Security Council.
  • 29.2% of respondents expressed optimism about reaching a peace agreement between the PA and Israel while 65% expressed pessimism about it.
  • Among the steps that the respondents supported after Netanyahu's rejection of the two-state solution and the halting of the peace process are:

     - 72.7% Submit a petition to the UN to recognize a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders.

     - 38.8% start a new armed intifada (uprising) and confrontations with the Israelis.

     - 56.6% start nonviolent and unarmed popular resistance

     - 22.7% call for a one state solution – a state for both Israelis and Palestinians

     - 32.2% dissolve of the PA.

     - 73.5% recourse to the International Criminal Court

  • 30.7% of respondents saw the PA as the body that can best oversee the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, 20.5% saw that it is Hamas, 15.7% saw that it is the Arab League, and 21.9% saw that it is the United Nations.
  • 62.1% of respondents believed that in the near future a new war will break out between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
  • 85% of respondents saw that Fatah and Hamas must speed up the implementation of the national reconciliation after the victory of Netanyahu in the last elections and his declarations regarding the establishment of a Palestinian State.

 

  • 52% of respondents said that they are optimistic about the implementation of the reconciliation agreement between Fatah and Hamas in the near future while 43.7% said they are pessimistic
  • 16.5% of respondents believed that the responsible party for the lack of implementation of the national reconciliation agreement is Hamas, 13.1% said it is Fatah, and 67.1% said it is some persons in Fatah and Hamas.
  • 38.7% believed that Egypt will open the Rafah Crossing permanently if the presidential guard runs the crossing, 11.7% believed Egypt will open it even if the situation remains as it is now, and 36.9% believed that Egypt will not fully open it under all circumstances.
  • 65.1% of respondents believed that Israel will release withheld tax revenues to the PA.
  • 63.9% of respondents believed that the United States and the European Union will put pressure on Israel to release Palestinian tax revenues after the recent Israeli elections.
  • 40.9% of respondents predicted the collapse of the PA if Israel does not release withheld tax revenues.
  • 53.5% of respondents believed that the Arab countries will fulfill their financial obligations to the PA if Israel continues withholding Palestinian tax revenues.
  • In case Israel does not release withheld Palestinian tax revenues 34.5% of respondents predicted that the PA will pay the  salaries by resorting to the Arab countries to support them financially, 16.1% predicted resorting to the United States and the European Union for financial support, 14.9% predicted the PA to borrow from banks, and 19.2% predicted the PA to reduce the number of its employees and 13.5% predicted the PA to reduce employees' salaries.
  • 41.3% of respondents believed in the possibility of Daish’s (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) infiltration to Palestine.
  • 11% of respondents believed that the rise of Daish will have a positive impact on the Palestinian cause; 77.1% believed that it will have a negative impact.
  • 42% of respondents believed that the international coalition against Daish will succeed in defeating it.
  • 74.6% of respondents supported boycotting Israeli goods and products.
  • 53.7% of respondents expected the success and endurance of the Palestinian reconciliation; 40.6% expected its failure. 
  • 10.7% of the respondents said that they buy Israeli products in all cases, 51.8% said they buy Palestinian products in all cases, and 33.1% said they buy according to the quality of the item regardless of its origin.
  • 70.2% of respondents assessed the performance of the National Unity Government as good.
  • 71.9% of respondents assessed the performance of the Palestinian Presidency as good.

 

  • 42.9% of respondents expected that if elections are conducted in the present time in the Palestinian Territories, they will be fair.
  • 77% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 35.4% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 14.2% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
  • 77.6% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 35.3% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 14.8% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
  • If PLC elections are to be conducted, 39% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 18.6% expected the winning of Hamas.
  • 79.8% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming municipality and local council elections. From among those who said they will participate, 28.3% said that they will give their votes to Fateh’s candidates, 14% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates and 12.1% said they will give their votes to the representative of their family or clan.
    • In case PLC elections will be conducted, 30.1% of respondents preferred conducting elections on the basis of electoral lists; 30.5% preferred conducting them on the basis of persons.
    • 30.5% of respondents said that the current political, security and economic circumstances compel them to desire emigrating.
    • 49.1% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
    • 64.9% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
    • 74.6% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.
    • As for political affiliation, respondents gave the following results:
  • 27.8% of respondents preferred conducting local council and municipality elections on the basis of electoral lists; 37.2% preferred conducting them on the basis of persons.

People’s Party

1.0%

Democratic Front

1.0%

Islamic Jihad

1.8%

Fateh

32.3%

Hamas

14.2%

Fida

0.2%

Popular Front

2.6%

Palestinian National Initiative

1.3%

I am an independent nationalist

6.9%

I am an independent Islamist

3.3%

None of the above

34.2%

Others

1.2%


 

The General Results of the Poll

 

  Do you support or reject the Central Council of the Palestine Liberation Organization's decision on ceasing security coordination between the PA and Israel?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I support

59.0

59.8

57.6

I reject

33.5

34.8

31.4

No opinion/I do not know

7.5

5.5

11.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

  Do you think that the PA will implement the Central Council of the Palestine Liberation Organization's decision on ceasing  security coordination between the PA and Israel?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

26.6

24.9

29.6

No

63.2

66.0

58.4

No opinion/I do not know

10.1

9.1

12.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

   In your point of view you, do you support or reject ceasing security coordination between the PA and Israel?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I support

56.7

56.9

56.4

I reject

36.5

38.7

32.8

No opinion/I do not know

6.8

4.4

10.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

   After Netanyahu and the Likud victory in the recent Israeli elections, do you expect a return to the negotiation table?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

53.2

57.6

45.8

No

37.8

36.4

40.2

No opinion/I do not know

9.0

6.0

14.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

  

After Netanyahu's declaration during the recent Israeli elections that he does not support a solution based on the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, do you support or reject a return to the negotiation table?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I support

36.8

39.3

32.6

I reject

56.3

56.4

56.0

No opinion/I do not know

6.9

4.3

11.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

   Do you expect that the United States to exert pressure on Israel to return to the negotiation  table and accept the two-state solution?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

48.8

50.3

46.2

No

43.0

45.1

39.4

No opinion/I do not know

8.2

4.5

14.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

   After Netanyahu declared his opposition to the two-state solution, do you think that the United States will recognize an independent Palestinian state on the 1967 borders if a petition is submitted  to the Security Council?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

28.7

26.2

33.0

No

63.4

70.3

51.4

No opinion/I do not know

7.9

3.5

15.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

   Do you consider yourself an optimist or a pessimist with reference to reaching a peace agreement between the PA and Israel?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Optimistic

29.2

30.8

26.4

Pessimistic

65.0

67.8

60.2

No opinion/I do not know

5.8

1.4

13.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 

   After Netanyahu's declaration refusing the two-state solution and after the halting of the peace process, what are the steps you would prefer that the Palestinians should take?

 

 

Yes

No

No opinion/ I do not know

Total

Submit a petition to the UN to recognize a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders.

72.2

22.1

5.2

100.0

Start nonviolent and unarmed popular resistance

38.8

54.3

6.9

100.0

Call for a one-state solution – a state for both Israelis and Palestinians

56.6

35.8

7.6

100.0

Dissolve  the PA.

22.7

71.0

6.3

100.0

Recourse to the International Criminal Court

32.2

59.3

8.5

100.0

Start a new armed intifada (uprising) and confrontations with the Israelis.

73.5

18.4

8.2

100.0

 

 

Yes

No

No opinion/ I do not know

Total

Submit a petition to the UN to recognize a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders.

76.7

20.7

2.6

100.0

Start nonviolent and unarmed popular resistance

35.2

62.3

2.4

100.0

Call for a one-state solution – a state for both Israelis and Palestinians

66.9

31.0

2.1

100.0

Dissolve  the PA.

27.0

71.0

2.0

100.0

Recourse to the International Criminal Court

29.8

66.9

3.4

100.0

Start a new armed intifada (uprising) and confrontations with the Israelis.

79.7

16.9

3.5

100.0

 

 

Yes

No

No opinion/ I do not know

Total

Submit a petition to the UN to recognize a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders.

65.8

24.4

9.8

100.0

Start nonviolent and unarmed popular resistance

45.0

40.4

14.6

100.0

Call for a one-state solution – a state for both Israelis and Palestinians

39.0

44.0

17.0

100.0

Dissolve  the PA.

15.4

71.0

13.6

100.0

Recourse to the International Criminal Court

36.4

46.4

17.2

100.0

Start a new armed intifada (uprising) and confrontations with the Israelis.

62.8

21.0

16.2

100.0


 

  In your point of view, which body/side can be best in overseeing the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

The PA

30.7

30.5

31.2

Hamas

20.5

24.2

14.2

The Arab League

15.7

15.1

11.6

The UN

21.9

19.3

26.4

No opinion/I do not know

11.1

7.9

16.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

   Do you think that in the near future a new war will break out between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

62.1

62.4

61.6

No

26.3

26.4

26.0

No opinion/I do not know

11.6

11.2

12.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

After Netanyahu’s recent victory and declarations regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state, do you see that Fatah and Hamas should speed up the implementation of the national reconciliation?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

85.0

90.6

75.4

No

11.5

8.0

17.6

No opinion/I do not know

3.5

1.4

7.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

   Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the implementation of the reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas in the near future?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Optimistic

52.0

56.9

43.6

Pessimistic

43.7

40.7

48.8

No opinion/I do not know

4.3

2.4

7.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


 In your point of view you who is responsible for the lack of implementation of the national reconciliation agreement?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Hamas

16.5

12.4

23.6

Fateh

13.1

12.9

13.4

Persons from both Hamas and Fateh

67.1

70.1

62.0

No opinion/I do not know

3.2

4.5

1.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

   When do you think Egypt will completely open the Rafah Crossing?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

If the Palestinian Presidential Guards take charge of running it

38.7

32.9

48.6

Egypt will open it even if the situation stays as it is now

11.7

11.7

11.6

Egypt will not open it completely under all circumstances

36.9

44.9

23.2

No opinion/I do not know

12.7

10.5

16.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

Do you think Israel will release withheld Palestinian tax revenues to the PA?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

65.1

70.8

55.4

No

25.5

23.4

29.2

No opinion/I do not know

9.3

5.8

15.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

   After the recent Israeli elections, do you think that the United States and the European Union will exert pressure on Israel to release Palestinian tax revenues?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

63.9

67.7

57.4

No

28.2

28.1

28.4

No opinion/I do not know

7.9

4.2

14.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

   In case Israel does not release withheld tax revenues to the PA, do you think that the PA will collapse?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

40.9

44.7

34.4

No

51.3

50.9

52.0

No opinion/I do not know

7.8

4.4

13.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

   Do you think that the Arab countries will fulfill their financial obligations to the PA if Israel continues withholding Palestinian tax revenues?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

53.5

55.9

49.4

No

38.2

39.3

36.4

No opinion/I do not know

8.2

4.8

14.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

    In case Israel does not release Palestinian tax revenues, how do you expect the PA to pay salaries?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

By resorting to the Arab countries to support them financially

34.5

40.3

24.4

By resorting to the United States and the European Union for financial support

16.1

18.0

12.8

By borrowing from banks

14.9

15.1

14.6

By reducing the number of its employees

19.2

13.0

29.8

By reducing employees' salaries

13.5

10.8

18.2

No opinion/I do not know

1.8

2.7

0.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

  Do you think that Daish (the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) can infiltrate into Palestine?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

41.3

37.9

47.0

No

49.0

54.1

40.4

No opinion/I do not know

9.7

8.0

12.6

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

  Do you think that the rise of Daish will have a positive or a negative impact on the Palestinian cause?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

It will have a positive impact

11.0

7.8

16.6

It will have a negative impact

77.1

81.4

69.6

No opinion/I do not know

11.9

10.8

13.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

  Do you think that the international coalition against Daish will succeed in defeating it?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

It will succeed

42.0

42.1

41.8

It will fail

41.9

45.3

36.0

No opinion/I do not know

16.1

12.6

22.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

  Do you support or reject boycotting Israeli goods and products?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I support

74.6

83.1

59.8

I reject

22.6

16.0

33.8

No opinion/I do not know

2.9

0.8

6.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

  Do you expect the success or the failure of the campaign of boycotting Israeli goods and products in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

It will succeed

53.7

56.2

49.4

It will fail

40.6

40.7

40.4

No opinion/I do not know

5.7

3.1

10.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 Do you personally buy Israeli products when there are Palestinian substitutes to them?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

I buy Israeli products in all cases

10.7

11.0

10.2

I buy Palestinian products in all cases

51.8

56.2

44.2

I buy products according to quality regardless of their source.

33.1

32.2

34.6

No opinion/I do not know

4.4

0.6

11.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

  How do you assess the performance of the National Unity Government?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Excellent

7.7

7.1

8.8

Good

62.5

67.2

54.4

Poor

23.5

19.0

31.4

No opinion/I do not know

6.3

6.7

5.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

   How do you assess the performance of the Palestinian Presidency?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Excellent

12.0

11.0

13.6

Good

59.9

64.5

52.0

Poor

25.1

22.1

30.4

No opinion/I do not know

2.9

2.3

4.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

    If elections are to be conducted in the Palestinian Territories at the present time, do you think that they will be fair?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

42.9

43.7

41.6

No

46.3

49.2

41.2

No opinion/I do not know

10.8

7.1

17.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

If presidential elections are held in the present time, to whom from among the following do you give your vote?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

An independent candidate

8.1

7.1

9.8

A candidate from the left

2.3

1.9

3.0

A candidate from Hamas

11.0

10.0

12.6

A candidate from Fateh

27.3

27.8

26.4

A national independent candidate

5.1

4.1

6.8

An Islamic independent candidate

4.0

3.1

5.6

I will not participate in the elections

23.0

23.8

21.6

I have not decided yet

19.3

22.2

14.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

    If new PLC elections are conducted, whom will you vote for?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

An independent ticket

7.4

6.7

8.6

A ticket from the left

2.4

2.0

3.0

A ticket from Hamas

11.5

10.3

13.4

A ticket from Fateh

27.4

27.9

26.4

A national independent ticket

5.7

4.5

7.6

An Islamic independent ticket

4.0

3.8

4.4

I will not participate in the elections

22.4

23.4

20.8

I have not decided yet

19.3

21.3

15.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

    If new legislative elections are to be held today, which of the following will win?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

An independent Islamists bloc

5.3

4.5

6.6

An independent Nationalist bloc

7.6

5.8

10.6

A Fateh bloc

39.0

43.3

31.8

A Hamas bloc

18.6

19.9

16.4

A bloc from leftist organizations

2.1

1.7

2.8

No opinion/I do not know

27.4

24.8

31.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

If municipality and local council elections are to be held, who do you vote for?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

A block that represents the family or clan

9.7

14.7

1.4

An independent ticket

6.7

6.6

6.8

A ticket from the left

2.0

1.3

3.0

A ticket from Hamas

11.2

9.8

13.6

A ticket from Fateh

22.6

20.7

25.6

A national independent ticket

5.5

4.0

8.0

An Islamic independent ticket

3.5

3.0

4.4

I will not participate in the elections

20.2

19.9

20.8

I have not decided yet

18.6

20.0

16.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 In case PLC elections are conducted, do you prefer conducting them on the basis of electoral lists or on the basis of persons?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Electoral lists

30.1

31.4

27.8

Persons

30.5

31.9

28.2

Mixed

26.0

31.4

16.6

No opinion/I do not know

13.5

5.3

27.4

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

Do you prefer conducting local council elections on the basis of electoral lists or on the basis of individual candidates?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Electoral lists

27.8

27.5

28.2

Individual candidates

37.2

41.7

29.6

Mixed

21.3

24.9

15.4

No opinion/I do not know

13.7

5.9

26.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

  Do the current political, security and economic circumstances compel you to desire emigrating abroad?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

30.5

21.4

46.2

No

66.3

77.4

47.0

No opinion/I do not know

3.2

1.2

6.8

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

   Are you worried about your life under the present circumstances?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

49.1

42.1

61.2

No

48.6

57.9

32.6

No opinion/I do not know

2.3

0.0

6.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

    Are you pessimistic or optimistic towards the general Palestinian situation at this stage?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Optimistic

31.8

36.3

24.2

Pessimistic

64.9

52.6

68.8

No opinion/I do not know

3.3

1.2

7.0

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

  Under the present circumstances, do you feel that you, your family and your properties are safe?

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

Yes

24.3

27.1

19.6

May be

38.6

39.5

37.0

No

36.0

33.3

40.6

No opinion/I do not know

1.1

0.1

2.7

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

    Which of the following political affiliations do you support?

PARTY

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

People’s Party

1.0

1.0

1.0

Democratic Front

1.0

1.0

0.8

Islamic Jihad

1.8

0.9

3.4

Fateh

32.3

33.7

29.8

Hamas

14.2

13.5

15.4

Fida

0.2

0.0

0.6

Popular Front

2.6

2.3

3.0

Palestinian National Initiative

1.3

0.6

2.6

I am an independent nationalist

6.9

5.1

10.0

I am an independent Islamist

3.3

3.4

3.2

None of the above

34.2

37.4

27.0

Others

1.2

0.0

3.2

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

 


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