An-Najah National University

Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies

Tel:  (972)(9) 2381113/7, 2386584            Fax:  (972)(9) 2387982

Nablus-Palestine:  P.O.Box 7, 707

Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll

No 29

25-27 July 2007

Background

The PLO Central Council called for conducting early elections for the Presidency and the Legislative Council of the Palestinian Authority (PA). While Fateh supported the call, Hamas rejected it considering early elections illegitimate since the call for such elections came from an institution which, according to a Hamas leader, has already lost its validity. President Abbas has repeatedly emphasized that he will not negotiate with Hamas since it has turned its back to legitimacy and that he is no longer concerned with the Cairo accords whose terms call for reactivating the PLO to include Hamas among its members.

The Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) has failed repeatedly to convene since the incidents of Gaza despite the urgent need for a PLC meeting to vote on granting a motion of confidence to the new government.

On the international political level, President Bush called for an international conference (meeting) in which the PA and Israel participate, in addition to a number of Arab countries; the PA welcomed the call.

Locally, the PA called on all "wanted" people to hand in their arms and join the Palestinian security apparatuses. In support of this move, Israel issued a list of the names of "wanted" people with the promise that it will cease pursuing them if they commit themselves to the PA's call. Al-Aqsa Brigades accepted the call while other factions and armed groups rejected it. In the meanwhile Israel released 250 Palestinian prisoners.

The Results

Following are the results of the 29^th Palestinian Public Opinion Poll conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 25-27 July, 2007. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

Palestinian public opinion poll no. 29 undertakes the current political realities especially the incidents that took place in Gaza, the domination of Hamas over the Strip, and the consequent decrees that President Abbas issued by which he dissolved the Palestinian unity government, declared a state of emergency, and formed an emergency government. The poll also undertakes Palestinian people's attitudes towards the coming elections in addition to political affiliations.

The sample included 1361 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 861 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 3.4% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

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The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not, by any means, represent the opinion of An-Najah National University.

The General Results:

• 68.6% of respondents considered the PLO the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.
• 77.4% of respondents believed that there is a need to reconstruct the institutions of the PLO.
• 50.8% of respondents believed that it is necessary to add Hamas to the institutions of the PLO.
• 37.5% of respondents believed that Hamas is serious in its intentions to join the PLO.
• 66.5% of respondents rejected declarations made by some officials of Hamas that the PLO institutions are illegitimate and do not represent the Palestinian people; 26.5% supported that.
• 61.1% of respondents supported the authorization given to President Mahmoud Abbas by the PLO Central Council allowing him to conduct early presidential and legislative elections as circumstances allow.
• 54.1% of respondents believed that President Mahmoud Abbas will go ahead in conducting early presidential and legislative elections.
• 70% of respondents supported conducting early presidential elections.
• 68.5% of respondents supported conducting early legislative elections.
• 63.3% of respondents believed that, if conducted, presidential and legislative elections will relieve Palestinians from the present political impasse.
• 34.2% of respondents believed that Hamas is capable of hindering and aborting elections if they are conducted without a general consensus (the approval of Hamas).
• 37.4% of respondents believed that Hamas will use violent means to abort elections if the PA decides to conduct them.
• 36.4% of respondents believed that early legislative elections would form a coup against the results of the last elections which were conducted about a year and a half ago.
• 37.2% of respondents believed that the PA is capable in the present time of conducting legislative elections in the Gaza Strip.
• 43% of respondents supported conducting piecemeal (on stages) legislative elections while % rejected.
• 57.3% of respondents said that if new presidential and legislative elections were conducted they would participate in them.
• 75.9% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 55.3% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 15.8% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
• 74.6% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 54.4% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 16.4% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
• 25.6% of respondents believed that the security conditions in the Gaza Strip after the domination of Hamas are improving; 49.7% said they are deteriorating.
• 53.4% of respondents believed that the security conditions were better before Hamas took hold of the Strip; 39.9% believed the contrary.
• 55.6% of respondents considered what Hamas did as a coup against Palestinian legitimacy.
• 58.8% of respondents believed that Hamas is endeavoring to create an entity of its own in the Gaza Strip in isolation from the West Bank; 33.4% believed the contrary.
• 26.2% of respondents believed that Hamas is capable of managing the life affairs of the citizens of the Gaza Strip.
• 27.2% of respondents supported Hamas' declaration that it will not recognize the legitimacy of the government that President Mahmoud Abbas formed.
• 60.2% of respondents believed that Salam Fayyad's government is capable of putting an end to the chaotic security situation in the West Bank.
• 45.6% of respondents believed that Salam Fayyad's government is capable of dominating the Gaza Strip in the coming period; 47.9% believed the contrary.

·         As for the priorities of the emergency government from the point of view of the respondents, they were as follows:

-          Restoring control over the Gaza Strip 55.5%

-          Restraining security chaos in the West Bank 71.0%

-          Restoring dialogue between Fateh and Hamas 54.8%

-          Improving the economic conditions 77.2%

-          Paying the salaries of employees 82.3%

• 27.6% of respondents supported asking the "wanted" people to hand in their arms to the PA; 65.8% rejected.
• 72.4% of respondents supported the notion that arms should only be in the hands of the members of the security apparatuses.
• 41.2% of respondents supported sending Bader Troops to the West Bank.
• 32.2% of respondents supported sending international forces to the West Bank and the Gaza Strip
• 58.8% of respondents believed that what happened in the Gaza Strip was incited by outside instigations.
• 41.3% of respondents considered Salam Fayyad's government formed by Mahmoud Abbas the legitimate government that represents them; 22.3% considered Ismael Hanyieh's government the legitimate one that represents them.
• 42.9% of respondents believed that Al-Qassam Brigades will resume firing rockets from the Gaza Strip against Israel after the domination of Hamas on the Strip.
• 48.6% of respondents supported a confederation between the West Bank and Jordan.
• 31.7% of respondents believed that Saudi Arabia's position towards Mahmoud Abbas after the incidents of Gaza was positive.
• 24.1% of respondents believed that Saudi Arabia's position towards Hamas after the incidents of Gaza was positive.
• 60.8% of respondents expressed fear that what happened in the Gaza Strip will be transferred to the West Bank.
• 57.9% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
• 68% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
• 80.9% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.

• As for political affiliation respondents gave the following results:

General Results of the Poll